‘Slippery slope’: How will Pakistan strike India as tensions soar?

Islamabad, Pakistan – On Wednesday evening, arsenic Pakistan grappled with the aftermath of a question of missile strikes from India that deed astatine slightest six cities, sidesplitting 31 people, the country’s subject spokesperson took to a microphone with a chilling warning.

“When Pakistan strikes India, it volition travel astatine a clip and spot of its ain choosing,” Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry said successful a media briefing. “The full satellite volition travel to know, and its reverberation volition beryllium heard everywhere.”

Two days later, India and Pakistan person moved adjacent person to the brink of war.

On Thursday, May 8, Pakistan accused India of flooding its airspace with kamikaze drones that were brought down implicit large cities, including Lahore and Karachi. India confirmed the drone assault, but said it was responding to a provocation from Pakistan — missiles and drones launched towards cities and aerial defence systems successful India and Indian-administered Kashmir. Pakistan denied that charge, and consequent accusations of rocket and drone attacks connected parts of Indian-administered Kashmir connected Thursday night.

With Pakistan denying immoderate rocket oregon drone strikes against India, Chaudhry’s informing of upcoming retribution remains alive, hovering implicit the 1.6 cardinal radical of South Asia, 17 days aft equipped gunmen killed 26 antheral civilians successful Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, triggering the existent escalation.

Experts accidental however Pakistan responds volition apt beryllium shaped by its tendency to show that it tin wounded India, without pushing the situation implicit the borderline into a full-blown conflict.

“We are inactive acold distant from a war, but we are overmuch person than we were 24 hours ago,” said Christopher Clary, adjunct prof of governmental subject astatine the University astatine Albany.

India launched respective drones wrong Pakistani territory, targeting municipality centres successful Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi and different cities, connected May 8, 2025 [Imran Ali/Reuters]

Next target: Military bases?

Clary said that the adjacent “logical escalatory” measurement for some countries mightiness beryllium to people each other’s subject bases.

“We person already seen this with aerial defence-focused strikes,” Clary told Al Jazeera, referring to the Indian drone attacks that tried to people Pakistani radar systems overnight connected May 7-8, and New Delhi’s claims that Pakistan launched missiles and drones towards its subject facilities.

“But I fearfulness different strikes are apt successful the adjacent 24 hours. I deliberation we are inactive respective days from de-escalation,” Clary said, adding that much deaths are likely.

India and Pakistan person been astatine loggerheads since gaining independency from British assemblage regularisation successful August 1947, particularly implicit the scenic Kashmir Valley successful the northwestern subcontinent. Both power parts of it, with China successful power of 2 bladed slices. India claims each of Kashmir, portion Pakistan claims each of Kashmir but the parts held by China, its ally.

They person fought aggregate wars implicit Kashmir. The past large escalation occurred successful February 2019, erstwhile India accused Pakistan of supporting equipped groups liable for a termination bombing that killed 40 Indian soldiers successful Pulwama, successful Indian-administered Kashmir.

In response, India crossed the borderline for the archetypal clip since the 1971 war, launching aerial strikes successful Balakot, Pakistan’s northwest, claiming to person deed “terrorist infrastructure” and having killed “hundreds of fighters”.

Pakistan countered that the country was a wood and reported nary casualties. It responded the adjacent time with its ain combatant jets, starring to a dogfight and the downing of an Indian jet. The captured pilot, Abhinandan Varthaman, was aboriginal returned to India, easing tensions.

Kamran Bokhari, elder manager astatine the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy successful Washington, DC, called the existent concern “much much dangerous” than successful 2019.

India, helium said, appeared to beryllium locked into an “escalatory spiral”.

“In lawsuit Pakistan makes a move, India volition respond and up the ante,” helium said.

“This is simply a caller concern for Pakistan. For the subject to accidental that it volition respond successful a clip of its ain choosing suggests they privation to deliberation it through, to onslaught successful a mode that does not pb to escalation. But however that materialises is simply a relation of capableness and constraint.”

The mosque successful Muridke metropolis successful Punjab was 1 of the respective locations deed by Indian missiles connected May 7, 2025, arsenic Indian struck Pakistan [Abid Hussain/Al Jazeera]

‘A deliberate response’

It took India 12 days to respond to the Pulwama killings with the Balakot onslaught successful 2019. In the existent conflict, the Indian effect took adjacent longer, 15 days, via “Operation Sindoor,” which struck aggregate Pakistani cities, including ones successful Punjab, adjacent to the Indian border.

Some analysts reason that portion Pakistan has truthful acold calibrated its effect diplomatically and militarily, the drone strikes connected Thursday greeting marked a “serious escalation”.

“The subject is expected to respond successful a mode that is steadfast and resolute, drafting connected some nationalist and governmental support. The standard of Pakistan’s effect volition beryllium rather telling,” said Arsla Jawaid, subordinate manager astatine planetary consulting steadfast Control Risks, portion speaking to Al Jazeera.

She said Pakistan is apt to opt for precision strikes targeting Indian subject assets portion avoiding civilian casualties.

“This could contented a decisive effect portion minimising further escalation. The second volition beryllium a captious calculation successful immoderate Pakistani response,” she added.

Sahar Khan, a Washington, DC-based information expert focused connected South Asia, agreed that Pakistan volition “definitely” respond.

Khan said India had crossed respective “red lines,” including suspending the Indus Waters Treaty aft the Pahalgam attack, and launching rocket and drone attacks. The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), mediated by the World Bank and signed successful 1960, governs the organisation of Indus River waters, captious for millions crossed the subcontinent, peculiarly successful Pakistan.

“The question is, what volition they [the Pakistani military] target? That volition find the escalation dynamics and the eventual off-ramps,” she told Al Jazeera.

“I deliberation Pakistan volition retaliate, showcasing its subject capabilities. Its defence systems stay intact, and that is an added inducement to respond,” Khan added.

‘Who blinks first?’

With brinkmanship astatine its highest and some sides locked successful assertive posturing, the top fearfulness remains that adjacent a tiny miscalculation could pb to a afloat fledged warfare betwixt 2 nations with much than 150 atomic weapons each.

Bokhari warned that India’s strikes successful Punjab, Pakistan’s astir populous and prosperous province, marked a unsafe precedent.

“By attacking Punjab, which was astir unthinkable, India has present made this the caller normal. This is simply a existent slippery slope,” helium said.

Jawaid concurred, noting that drone strikes connected Pakistani municipality centres besides suggest a displacement successful reddish lines.

“That opens the doorway to a sustained and heightened hazard of escalation, which is profoundly problematic owed to the hazard of miscalculation connected some sides. We are successful a lawsuit of who blinks first,” she said.

But Khan believes that determination are a fewer potential off-ramps.

“The archetypal is the planetary community, specified arsenic the US, China, and Russia, urging restraint. The 2nd is for India and Pakistan to amusement willingness to redefine reddish lines, similar India agreeing to the IWT again and Pakistan agreeing not to onslaught Indian subject targets,” she said.

Jawaid, however, warned that adjacent if India and Pakistan debar a war, their already profoundly strained equation has changed – there’s a caller mean that volition specify it.

“The longer this is sustained, the much challenging it becomes,” she said. “The bilateral narration is already fraught with heightened tensions, which volition proceed adjacent if the existent struggle settles down, particularly owed to unresolved issues astir earthy resources and Kashmir, which remains a flashpoint.”