Trump thinks he is shaping the Middle East. Instead, it’s Gulf states that will dictate US foreign policy | Simon Tisdall

Donald Trump is accustomed to getting his ain way. That could alteration adjacent week erstwhile he’s confronted by the messiness he’s making successful the Middle East. As helium begins a three-day travel to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, the US president is promising large things. As ever, he’s delusional. The world is that reckless, incoherent and neglectful US determination policies are failing crossed the board. A cardinal people correction is urgently required.

Gulf leaders person the leverage to acceptable Trump straight, if they determine to usage it. He relies connected them to an unprecedented degree – acold much than connected Europe – arsenic diplomatic interlocutors, information partners and fiscal backers. His attack to Palestine, which is connected the brink of a 2nd Nakba (catastrophe), is simply a premix of prejudice, cruelty and sheer ignorance. Without Arab help, the US and Israel whitethorn stay trapped indefinitely successful a destructive argumentation cul-de-sac.

Trump knows helium cannot spend to disregard the views of the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and his Gulf counterparts connected Gaza, Syria and Yemen. They reason warfare with Iran, arsenic antecedently threatened by the US and Israel. Trump needs them arsenic allies successful his commercialized and tariff feud with China. Gulf diplomats hosted the Ukraine-Russia bid talks helium personally promoted. He is desperate to support lipid prices low. And helium covets multibillion dollar Middle East concern deals and arms sales.

Yet for Gulf support, determination is simply a terms to pay. Take Trump’s anticipation of extending the alleged Abraham accords by normalising Saudi-Israeli relations. Whatever Trump says, Salman vows this cannot hap without guaranteed advancement towards an autarkic Palestinian authorities – a imaginable Israel’s authorities abhors. Salman has described the post-7 October sidesplitting of more than 52,000 Palestinians successful Gaza arsenic “genocide”. In Riyadh, Trump volition look aggravated unit to extremity Israel’s blockade and reinstate the ceasefire.

US-Israel relations are growing progressively strained, with Trump truthful acold declining invitations to adhd Jerusalem to his trip. Careless of the interaction connected surviving Israeli hostages held by Hamas, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s premier minister, and his far-right allies program a long-term subject concern of Gaza and wide expulsions of Palestinians. Yet portion Trump was supportive 2 months ago, talking foolishly astir gathering a “Riviera of the Middle East”, helium seems belatedly to person realised bid does not prevarication that way.

Netanyahu, who continues to impulse the US to articulation Israel successful subject enactment against Iran this year, was caught by astonishment by Trump’s abrupt announcement past period of talks with Tehran about its atomic programme. A likewise abrupt Trump U-turn past week, ending US airstrikes connected Yemen, besides blindsided Israel, which continues to weaponry Houthi fighters. Both argumentation shifts, and Trump’s changing code connected Gaza, travel effectual Gulf lobbying.

Arab leaders, backed by Turkey, besides privation Trump to curb Israel’s subject operations successful Lebanon and particularly successful Syria, which it has repeatedly attacked since Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship fell to Islamist insurgents successful December. All six Gulf Cooperation Council members favour engagement with Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and his conjugation government.

Sharaa says helium does not privation a combat with Israel and is focused connected reuniting his shattered country. His groundbreaking visits to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar produced generous offers of reconstruction aid. Yet Trump, dissimilar Britain and the EU, has refused to unbend Assad-era sanctions. It’s a large mistake that handicaps Syrians’ hopes of a caller commencement – and could fto Iran and Russia backmost in. A democratic, pro-western Syria is simply a large prize. Right now, it is opening to look similar a missed opportunity.

If Trump wants to beryllium definite of Gulf enactment for his wider agenda, helium indispensable springiness thing important back. That could beryllium a revival of the 2015 US-Europe atomic pact with Iran (which helium witlessly reneged connected successful 2018) – portion ensuring Netanyahu and Tehran hardliners bash not commencement different war. Trump whitethorn precise good instrumentality the plunge. He claims he’s the “peace president”. This is simply a accidental to beryllium it.

A much enlightened US attack to Gaza and Syria could besides service different Trump objectives: little vigor prices and enhanced Gulf concern successful US businesses and jobs. Saudi attitudes are pivotal to both. Sustained price-cuts astatine the state pump could placate disappointed Trump voters and assistance tame US inflation. In January, Salman floated a $600bn (£450bn), four-year US concern deal. More whitethorn follow.

Might this large abdominous carrot beryllium the main crushed Trump chose Saudi Arabia for his archetypal post-inauguration authorities visit, arsenic helium did successful 2017? A mooted US-Saudi information pact is an further lure, with an initial $100bn weapons package for Riyadh already successful the works. And determination volition beryllium plentifulness of openings for Trump household businesses, too, if a caller Qatar luxury play edifice deal is immoderate guide. Trump’s tendency to marque a speedy subordinate is not diminished 1 jot by imaginable conflicts of interest.

Jamal Khashoggi successful 2014. Photograph: Mohammed al-Shaikh/AFP/Getty Images

Obscured by these weighty considerations is the dismaying grade to which Trump is legitimising and boosting anti-democratic, authoritarian Gulf regimes notorious for institutionalised misogyny and quality rights abuses. His Saudi sojourn completes the undeserved rehabilitation of Salman aft the 2018 murder of writer Jamal Khashoggi.

The expanding powerfulness and power of the Gulf states is an inescapable information of 21st-century geopolitical and economical life. Yet erstwhile discussing captious questions of Middle East bid and security, however bonzer that a clump of entitled, unelected autocrats is showing a US president however to bash the close thing. If Trump were a braver, much honorable man, helium would spell to Gaza adjacent week and spot for himself the devastation helium and his far-right allies person wreaked.

He volition not bash so. That Trump is nary man is communal knowledge. It’s plain he’s nary statesman, either.

• Simon Tisdall is simply a Guardian overseas affairs commentator