Trump tariffs: One thing investors need to watch for

00:00 Speaker A

super abbreviated word successful the adjacent mates of weeks here, erstwhile it comes to headlines coming retired of these commercialized talks, what would marque you much bullish?

00:10 Tim Murray

I truthful I I would say, um, 1 of the large 1 of the astir important things to ticker is the 10%. So, we came into this twelvemonth with tariff the the aggregate tariff complaint connected a weighted mean ground that we were charging the remainder of the world. It was 2.5%, thing successful that neighborhood. Um, if and past we got the the the tariffs enactment on, the reciprocal tariffs and a 10% broad tariff, right? So, 10, adjacent if we get escaped of each of the 10 oregon each of the reciprocal tariffs, you inactive got 10% left. That's a 400% summation successful tariffs. Um, truthful what I would beryllium watching is, is that 10% a level oregon not, right? So if we commencement to spot deals wherever we really get that 10% would get down from that 10%, that would beryllium a truly good, um, sign. But if the 10% benignant of looks similar a floor, you're you're that's going to beryllium pugnacious unless you get truly large exemptions.

02:41 Speaker A

Yeah, and to that nonstop point, however bash you commercialized successful this environment, Tim? I noticed successful your successful your notes that you sent over, you talked astir the six to 18 period outlook being highly opaque. How bash you allocate superior erstwhile you can't spot a twelvemonth and a fractional from now?

03:15 Tim Murray

Yeah, I truthful what I would accidental is you request to marque definite you person a plan. One, what we bash cognize is there's going to beryllium a batch of uncertainty and a batch of volatility going forward. So, I would accidental one, you privation to person cash. Um, you privation to astir apt dial down however much, um, hazard you have. And if you're, you know, if you're successful a concern wherever you can't basal a batch of volatility, I would I would look to de-risk your portfolio. And reasonably signal. But but if you if you're successful a concern wherever you think, hey, I I privation to instrumentality vantage of immoderate weakness, conscionable beryllium prepared for each that volatility, person a program going in. You person to look astatine it and say, hey, this is the constituent wherever I deliberation the atrocious quality is priced in, and this is wherever I would commencement buying due to the fact that the time that the prices look the champion is going to beryllium the time erstwhile the quality is the worst. Just support that successful mind.

05:12 Speaker A

Tim, what is the champion determination erstwhile it comes to that de-risking? We've seen the formation to international, the formation to gold. Uh, what determination is the champion 1 successful your view?

05:39 Tim Murray

So I deliberation it's inactive cash. Uh, I I bash deliberation planetary bonds is is simply a bully alternate to US Treasuries. But conscionable fixed wherever the Fed is with, you know, they person dueling mandates close now, not conscionable dual mandates. That's going to marque them conflicted about, you know, truthful immoderate economical weakness is not needfully going to beryllium met with Fed cuts. So I would accidental currency is astir apt your champion spot to beryllium astatine this point.

06:44 Speaker A

All right, Tim Murray. Thank you truthful overmuch for joining america this morning. Appreciate it.

06:51 Tim Murray

Thanks, Madison.