Thai growth likely slowed in first quarter on weak investment and consumption: Reuters poll

By Rahul Trivedi

BENGALURU (Reuters) - Economic maturation successful Thailand apt slowed successful the archetypal quarter, weighed down by subdued backstage investment, weaker household depletion and a driblet successful tourism, according to a Reuters canvass of economists.

Southeast Asia's second-largest system was forecast to grow 2.9% connected mean successful the 3 months to March 31 from the aforesaid play a twelvemonth earlier, the May 8–14 canvass of 20 economists showed. Estimates ranged betwixt 2.2% and 3.8%.

The system grew 3.2% successful the 4th quarter.

The authorities is scheduled to merchandise the information connected May 19.

Tepid home request and softening tourer arrivals from China were partially cushioned by stronger exports and higher authorities spending, a Bank of Thailand study said precocious past month.

Private concern - which shrank 1.6% past twelvemonth - was a resistance connected the system successful the erstwhile quarter.

On a quarterly basis, gross home merchandise (GDP) apt grew a seasonally adjusted 0.6%, somewhat faster than the 0.4% summation successful the 4th ended December 31, a smaller canvass illustration showed.

"Private concern could beryllium a resistance connected the system successful the archetypal 4th due to the fact that a batch of businesses look to person falling confidence," said Poon Panichpibool, a markets strategist astatine Krung Thai Bank.

Panichpibool said the main operator of first-quarter maturation would inactive beryllium exports, which had been expanding by treble digits up until the past fewer months owed to the unreserved to debar tariffs. Private depletion would besides proceed to turn steadily.

Thailand faces tariffs of 36% connected its exports to the U.S. though the authorities said it has received a affirmative effect from Washington for a imaginable commercialized deal.

"Thailand is apt to scope a woody that aligns with a cosmopolitan 10% tariff, akin to what competitors similar Vietnam mightiness hold to. This would bounds the disadvantage to Thai exporters," said Amonthep Chawla, caput of the probe bureau astatine CIMB Thai Bank.

An April survey showed economists had lowered their 2025 maturation forecast to 2.1%, from 2.9% successful a January survey. That was supra the Bank of Thailand’s 2.0% projection successful April and the International Monetary Fund’s much blimpish 1.8% forecast successful May.

The cardinal slope chopped its cardinal complaint by 25 ground points for the 2nd consecutive clip past period to enactment the economy.

(Reporting by Rahul Trivedi; Polling by Susobhan Sarkar and Veronica Khongwir. Editing by Rachna Uppal)