MAGA goes East: Romania's presidential frontrunner rides hard-right wave

By Krisztina Than and Luiza Ilie

BUDAPEST/BUCHAREST (Reuters) - A pro-Trump hard-right lawmaker could triumph Sunday's statesmanlike predetermination successful Romania, portion polls enactment 2 much MAGA-fans successful 2nd and 3rd spot successful a Polish vote, amid a governmental displacement successful Central Europe that could widen rifts successful the European Union.

George Simion, a nationalist who campaigns to "Make Romania Great Again", opposes subject assistance to Ukraine and is captious of the EU's leadership, decisively won the archetypal circular of the ballot connected May 4. He has been up successful astir polls up of a May 18 run-off ballot against centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan, though the astir caller survey enactment them neck-and-neck.

A Simion triumph could destabilize the EU and NATO subordinate and person repercussions besides successful the EU, particularly erstwhile it comes to issues that necessitate unanimity, diplomats and experts said.

"Simion's predetermination would people a oversea alteration successful Romanian politics, creating important risks to home stability, Bucharest-Brussels relations, and EU unity implicit Ukraine," said Mujtaba Rahman, managing manager for Europe astatine consultancy Eurasia Group.

If Simion wins, Hungary's fiercely anti-immigrant person Viktor Orban, a long-time Trump ally, and Slovakia's Robert Fico - who some reason subject assistance for Ukraine - could summation a caller state successful the European Council successful decisions connected assistance for Ukraine, energy, sanctions against Russia oregon the EU's budget.

Their campy could turn further successful October if a parliamentary predetermination successful the Czech Republic brings backmost eurosceptic erstwhile Prime Minister Andrej Babis, whose ANO enactment leads polls with 30-35% support.

'COMMON NARRATIVE'

During a televised statement past week, Simion gave Orban a nod, contempt their differences implicit Romania's ample taste Hungarian number successful Transylvania.

"I respect FIDESZ president and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, galore of his policies volition beryllium authorities policies successful Romania too. Now is the clip for a Europe of Christian nations," Simion said.

He besides endorsed Karol Nawrocki, backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, who trails Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski successful polls up of the archetypal circular of the statesmanlike predetermination successful Poland connected Sunday. On Tuesday, Simion went to Poland to be Nawrocki's rally, telling his supporters Trump was a "symbol of freedom".

Slawomir Mentzen from the far-right Confederation party, besides a Trump fan, is polling third.

Bulcsu Hunyadi, a specializer successful right-wing populism astatine Political Capital, a Budapest think-tank, said the occurrence of Trump and his MAGA question had fixed momentum to nationalist politicians successful the region.

"When it comes to disapproval of the EU, disapproval of the wide globalist elites... that is simply a precise communal facet of the narratives of these actors," helium said.

And U.S. conservatives person offered their support.

The American Conservative Union announced successful March that it would clasp the 2025 spin-off of its CPAC league successful Poland. Only Orban has hosted CPAC successful Europe before.

The EU has grappled for years with Orban blocking cardinal bits of legislation, portion accusing him of undermining antiauthoritarian values successful Hungary - an allegation the seasoned leader, who faces a pugnacious predetermination contention successful 2026, denies.

Having a larger radical of hard-right leaders would beryllium much hard for the centrist bulk successful the EU to navigate, respective diplomats said, astatine a clip erstwhile the 27-member bloc faces unprecedented challenges, with pugnacious tariff talks with Trump and a increasing perceived menace from Russia.

One European authoritative said determination was a "constant menace successful presumption of argumentation making connected overseas policy", though noting that eastbound Europe's nationalists were not ever a unified bloc.

IMMIGRATION AND COST OF LIVING

While erstwhile communist countries successful Central Europe had embraced joining the EU from 2004 onwards, the hopes their citizens erstwhile had of catching up accelerated with the wealthier West person faded successful caller years.

The COVID-19 pandemic and past the economical fallout from Russia's penetration of Ukraine person slowed the region's convergence. According to the European Central Bank's June 2024 report, "since 2019 the catching-up process has stalled, oregon adjacent reversed".

Many Central Europeans consciousness they person mislaid retired financially and their cost-of-living concerns fuelled sentiment against mainstream parties.

"The astir important origin has been increasing economical inequalities," said Endre Borbath, a inferior prof astatine the Ruprecht-Karls-Universität successful Heidelberg, pointing retired that successful countries specified arsenic Romania the accelerated improvement brought by EU funds had been concentrated successful a fewer cardinal regions.

Borbath besides said the 2015 migration situation - erstwhile astir 1 cardinal people, galore fleeing Syria's civilian war, arrived successful the EU - caught Eastern Europe's blimpish societies unprepared, which was fertile crushed for stoking anti-immigration sentiment.

Florin, 47, a elector successful Bucharest who declined to springiness his past name, said helium would ballot for Simion connected Sunday and hoped helium "closes the borders and restores Romania's system if it is inactive possible".

"For those of america who were determination successful 1989, who caught a gyration - I was 13 astatine the clip - perfectly thing has happened. Everything is for them," helium said, referring to the governmental elite. "For us, the moving class, thing has been done."

(Writing by Krisztina Than, Reporting by Luiza Ilie successful Bucharest, Lili Bayer successful Brussels, Alan Charlish successful Warsaw, Jan Lopatka successful Prague, Krisztina Fenyo successful Budapest; further reporting by Octav Ganea successful Bucharest; Editing by Alex Richardson)