Ex-UK home secretary: Trump unlikely to yield peace between Ukraine, Russia

Former British Home Secretary Charles Clarke has expressed small religion that United States President Donald Trump’s “combination of bullying and flattering” volition nutrient a lasting ceasefire successful Ukraine.

Trump, on April 17, presented Russia and Ukraine with a “final” ceasefire offer, which forces Kyiv to legally cede Crimea to Moscow, without offering it information guarantees.

“My representation from the outset, which is fundamentally pessimistic, is that Trump wanted his large infinitesimal and successful the aforesaid mode arsenic with North Korea, helium thought helium could [coax Russia] into a situation,” said Clarke.

Trump had likewise tried to unit North Korea into atomic disarmament successful 2019.

“I don’t myself spot however [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy oregon Ukraine arsenic a full could ever concede de jure power of Crimea to Russia. They could concede de facto control, but Trump didn’t look to instrumentality that distinction,” Clarke said.

“He’s shaken things up, but I deliberation he’s been evidently acold excessively credulous to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and to Russia successful the full process.”

Clarke spoke to Al Jazeera connected the sidelines of the 16th Conference connected Baltic Studies successful Europe, hosted precocious by Cambridge University’s Centre for Geopolitics, which Clarke co-directs with Brendan Simms, a prof of European geopolitics.

Can Europe look Russia?

The imaginable of a imaginable ceasefire is seldom retired of the headlines.

Over the weekend, Putin said Russia would prosecute successful nonstop talks with Ukraine “without preconditions” – a uncommon connection passim the struggle – aft European leaders met Zelenskyy successful Kyiv to telephone for a 30-day truce.

Ukraine and Europe person presented a ceasefire document, which, dissimilar Trump’s plan, makes nary territorial concessions to Russia 3 years aft it invaded Ukraine. The question is whether they are consenting and capable to backmost it with continued subject effort if Russia and the US cull it.

“The script of a implicit American withdrawal whitethorn beryllium overly bleak close now, but it’s decidedly a possibility,” said Simms.

Should Europe past connection Ukraine an autarkic information guarantee?

“I bash deliberation we should bash that, but I deliberation we should lone bash it if we are genuinely committed to going the afloat mile with Ukraine,” said Simms.

“I could rather easy see, for instance, a sermon successful a state similar Germany, which would accidental thing like, ‘Well, it’s atrocious what’s happening successful Ukraine, Trump is awful, [but] nary we’re not going to bash thing to assistance Ukraine, and we are going to usage Trump arsenic an excuse to locomotion distant from supporting Ukraine’,” Simms said. “That is precise overmuch a sermon you’re opening to perceive successful German nationalist opinion.”

Both Clarke and Simms believed the Russian army’s quality to triumph an uncontestable subject triumph successful Ukraine has been overestimated acknowledgment to narratives touted by the Kremlin.

“There’s been far excessively overmuch belief that the Russians person got an effectual subject and economical machine,” said Clarke, citing the Russian nonaccomplishment to instrumentality Kyiv successful 2022 and losing power of the Black Sea to an adversary without a navy.

Russia’s territorial gains successful Ukraine person slowed down dramatically, 2 abstracted analyses recovered past month.

The Ministry of Defence of the United Kingdom estimated that Russian forces seized 143sq km (55sq miles) of Ukrainian onshore successful March, compared with 196sq km (75sq miles) successful February and 326sq km (125sq miles) successful January.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington, DC-based deliberation tank, spotted the aforesaid trend, estimating Russian gains of 203sq km (78sq miles) successful March, 354sq km (136sq miles) successful February and 427sq km (165sq miles) successful January.

This signifier of diminishing returns had started successful 2024, a twelvemonth erstwhile Russia wrested distant conscionable 4,168sq km (1,610sq miles) of fields and abandoned villages – equivalent to 0.69 percent of Ukraine, the ISW determined successful January.

Those meagre gains came astatine the outgo of 430,790 soldiers, the equivalent of 36 Russian motorised firearm divisions, outnumbering Russia’s losses successful 2022 and 2023 combined, said Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence.

As Russia prepared to observe the 80th day of triumph successful World War II, its losses successful Ukraine were approaching the 1 cardinal mark, Ukraine’s Defence Ministry said.

Al Jazeera is incapable to independently verify casualty tolls.

“They bash person value of numbers connected their side, but value of numbers lone counts if you’ve got consenting fighters,” said Clarke. “And there’s a large woody of grounds that there’s existent problems for the Russian enactment successful presumption of the cognition of Russian troops and Russian positions.”

While Europe could yet measurement up defence concern capacity, Clarke cautioned that Europe would nevertheless conflict to regenerate US intelligence, governmental coherence and bid and control.

A European unit for the Baltic

These issues person precocious travel to the fore, arsenic Europe grappled with the anticipation of fielding a peacekeeping crushed unit successful Ukraine.

Simms argued successful favour of creating it, but against deploying it successful Ukraine arsenic a peacekeeping force.

One crushed is that European militaries are not trained for the drone warfare present being developed successful Ukraine and volition not beryllium effective, helium said.

“The different information is that the Ukrainian service is our astir effectual ally. If we deploy forces arsenic portion of a bid deal, which volition extremity the warfare successful Ukraine by explanation and instrumentality the Ukrainians retired of the conflict, we volition extremity up successful a concern wherever our mobile force, our lone deployable force, the preponderance of it volition beryllium fixed successful Ukraine. Vladimir Putin volition nary longer beryllium fixed successful Ukraine. He tin pivot to look the Baltic states successful the precocious north, and the Ukrainians volition nary longer beryllium successful the field. So that volition beryllium astir similar … a self-inflicted wound.”

A European mobile unit should support its pulverization adust for deployment wherever Putin strikes next, said Simms, astir apt successful the Baltic states, portion Europe helps Ukraine successful long-range fires – drones and missiles – and provides aerial cover.

Russia’s psyops: Nuclear blackmail

Clarke said it is “absolutely possible” that Europe and Kyiv tin triumph the warfare without Washington’s support, but warned of a “high hazard strategy” should Ukraine “hold connected truthful agelong that Russia would autumn over”.

Europe and Ukraine could triumph if Europe overcame its fearfulness of atomic blackmail, said Simms.

Putin threatened the usage of atomic weapons from the outset, helium said, but did not usage them erstwhile Ukraine claimed backmost 20,000sq km (7,720sq miles) of its territory successful September 2022, nor erstwhile Ukraine counter-invaded Russia successful August 2024.

An injured pistillate adjacent her house, damaged by a Russian aerial attack, successful a Kyiv neighbourhood, Ukraine, April 24, 2025 [Evgeniy Maloletka/AP Photo]

Yet fearfulness of atomic retaliation prevented Germany from giving Ukraine its 500km-range (310-mile) Taurus missile, which carries a 450kg warhead and impacts astatine precocious speed, devastating its targets.

“It’s not astatine each wide that if a powerfulness presumption successful Moscow were destroyed by a Taurus, that [Putin] would usage atomic weapons. In fact, I deliberation it is unlikely,” said Simms.

“But helium has achieved done his rhetoric and through, I think, a misunderstanding of the quality of deterrence, a chilling effect connected the West, which has outgo the Ukrainians beloved and has wasted 3 years that we had to benignant this retired – earlier Donald Trump appeared connected the scene.”