Could India, Pakistan use nuclear weapons? Here’s what their doctrines say

Pakistan said it struck aggregate Indian subject bases successful the aboriginal hours of Saturday, May 10, aft claiming that India had launched missiles against 3 Pakistani bases, marking a crisp escalation successful their already soaring tensions, arsenic the neighbours borderline person to an all-out war.

Long-simmering hostilities, mostly implicit the disputed portion of Kashmir, erupted into renewed warring aft the deadly April 22 Pahalgam onslaught successful Indian-administered Kashmir that saw 25 tourists and a section usher killed successful an equipped radical attack. India blamed Pakistan for the attack; Islamabad denied immoderate role.

Since then, the nations person engaged successful a bid of tit-for-tat moves that began with diplomatic steps but person rapidly turned into aerial subject confrontation.

As some sides escalate shelling and rocket attacks and look connected the roadworthy to a full-scale battle, an unprecedented world stares not conscionable astatine the 1.6 cardinal radical of India and Pakistan but astatine the world: An all-out warfare betwixt them would beryllium the archetypal ever betwixt 2 nuclear-armed nations.

“It would beryllium anserine for either broadside to motorboat a atomic onslaught connected the different … It is mode abbreviated of probable that atomic weapons are used, but that does not mean it’s impossible,” Dan Smith, manager of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, told Al Jazeera.

So, however did we get here? What are the atomic arsenals of India and Pakistan like? And erstwhile – according to them – mightiness they usage atomic weapons?

How tensions person spiralled since April 22

India has agelong accused The Resistance Front (TRF) – the equipped radical that initially claimed recognition for the Pahalgam attack, earlier past distancing itself from the killings – of being a proxy for the Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan-based equipped radical that has repeatedly targeted India, including successful the 2008 Mumbai attacks that near much than 160 radical dead.

New Delhi blamed Islamabad for the Pahalgam attack. Pakistan denied immoderate role.

India withdrew from a bilateral pact connected h2o sharing, and some sides scaled backmost diplomatic missions and expelled each other’s citizens. Pakistan besides threatened to locomotion retired of different bilateral pacts, including the 1972 Simla Agreement that bound the neighbours to a ceasefire enactment successful disputed Kashmir, known arsenic the Line of Control (LoC).

But connected May 7, India launched a question of rocket attacks against sites successful Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. It claimed it deed “terrorist infrastructure”, but Pakistan says astatine slightest 31 civilians, including 2 children, were killed.

On May 8, India launched drones into Pakistani airspace, reaching the country’s large cities. India claimed it was retaliating, and that Pakistan had fired missiles and drones astatine it. Then, for 2 nights successful a row, cities successful India and Indian-administered Kashmir reported explosions that New Delhi claimed were the effect of attempted Pakistani attacks that were thwarted.

Pakistan denied sending missiles and drones into India connected May 8 and May 9 – but that changed successful the aboriginal hours of May 10, erstwhile Pakistan archetypal claimed that India targeted 3 of its bases with missiles. Soon after, Pakistan claimed it struck astatine slightest 7 Indian bases. India has not yet responded either to Pakistan’s claims that Indian bases were deed oregon to Islamabad’s allegation that New Delhi launched missiles astatine its subject installations.

How galore atomic warheads bash India and Pakistan have?

India archetypal conducted atomic tests successful May 1974 earlier consequent tests successful May 1998, aft which it declared itself a atomic weapons state. Within days, Pakistan launched a bid of six atomic tests and officially became a nuclear-armed state, too.

Each broadside has since raced to physique arms and atomic stockpiles bigger than the other, a task that has outgo them billions of dollars.

India is presently estimated to person much than 180 atomic warheads. It has developed longer-range missiles and mobile land-based missiles susceptible of delivering them, and is moving with Russia to physique vessel and submarine missiles, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Pakistan’s arsenal, meanwhile, consists of much than 170 warheads. The state enjoys technological enactment from its determination ally, China, and its stockpile includes chiefly mobile short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, with capable scope to deed conscionable wrong India.

A motorcyclist rides past shattered windows of a edifice extracurricular the Rawalpindi cricket stadium aft an alleged drone was changeable down successful Rawalpindi, Pakistan, connected May 8, 2025 [Aamir Qureshi/ AFP]

What’s India’s atomic policy?

India’s involvement successful atomic powerfulness was initially sparked and expanded nether its archetypal premier minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, who was anxious to usage it to boost vigor generation. However, successful caller decades, the state has solidified its atomic powerfulness presumption to deter its neighbours, China and Pakistan, implicit territorial disputes.

New Delhi’s archetypal and lone nuclear doctrine was published successful 2003 and has not been formally revised. The designer of that doctrine, the precocious strategical expert K Subrahmanyam, was the begetter of India’s existent overseas minister, S Jaishankar.

Only the premier minister, arsenic caput of the governmental assembly of the Nuclear Command Authority, tin authorise a atomic strike. India’s atomic doctrine is built astir 4 principles:

• No First Use (NFU): This rule means that India volition not beryllium the archetypal to motorboat atomic attacks connected its enemies. It volition lone retaliate with atomic weapons if it is archetypal deed successful a atomic attack. India’s doctrine says it tin motorboat retaliation against attacks committed connected Indian ungraded oregon if atomic weapons are utilized against its forces connected overseas territory. India besides commits to not utilizing atomic weapons against non-nuclear states.
• Credible Minimum Deterrence: India’s atomic posture is centred astir deterrence – that is, its atomic arsenal is meant chiefly to discourage different countries from launching a atomic onslaught connected the country. India maintains that its atomic arsenal is security against specified attacks. It’s 1 of the reasons wherefore New Delhi is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), arsenic it maintains that each countries uniformly disarm earlier it does the same.
• Massive Retaliation: India’s retaliation to a first-strike from an aggressor volition beryllium calculated to inflict specified demolition and harm that the enemy’s subject capabilities volition beryllium annihilated.
• Exceptions for biologic oregon chemic weapons: As an objection to NFU, India volition usage atomic weapons against immoderate authorities that targets the state oregon its subject forces overseas with biologic oregon chemic weapons, according to the doctrine.

What is Pakistan’s atomic policy?

• Strategic Ambiguity: Pakistan has ne'er officially released a broad argumentation connection connected its atomic weapons use, giving it the flexibility to perchance deploy atomic weapons astatine immoderate signifier of a conflict, arsenic it has threatened to bash successful the past. Experts wide judge that from the outset, Islamabad’s non-transparency was strategical and meant to enactment arsenic a deterrence to India’s superior accepted subject strength, alternatively than to India’s atomic powerfulness alone.
• The Four Triggers: However, successful 2001, Lieutenant General (Retd) Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, regarded arsenic a pivotal strategist progressive successful Pakistan’s atomic policy, and an advisor to the atomic bid agency, laid retired 4 wide “red lines” oregon triggers that could effect successful a atomic limb deployment. They are:

Spatial threshold – Any nonaccomplishment of ample parts of Pakistani territory could warrant a response. This besides forms the basal of its struggle with India.

Military threshold – Destruction oregon targeting of a ample fig of its aerial oregon onshore forces could beryllium a trigger.

Economic threshold – Actions by aggressors that mightiness person a choking effect connected Pakistan’s economy.

Political threshold – Actions that pb to governmental destabilisation oregon large-scale interior disharmony.

However, Pakistan has ne'er spelled retired conscionable however ample the nonaccomplishment of territory of its equipped forces needs to beryllium for these triggers to beryllium acceptable off.

Has India’s atomic posture changed?

Although India’s authoritative doctrine has remained the same, Indian politicians person successful caller years implied that a much ambiguous posture regarding the No First Use argumentation mightiness beryllium successful the works, presumably to lucifer Pakistan’s stance.

In 2016, India’s then-Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar questioned if India needed to proceed binding itself to NFU. In 2019, the contiguous Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said that India had truthful acold strictly adhered to the NFU policy, but that changing situations could impact that.

“What happens successful the aboriginal depends connected the circumstances,” Singh had said.

India adopting this strategy mightiness beryllium seen arsenic proportional, but immoderate experts enactment that strategical ambiguity is simply a double-edged sword.

“The deficiency of cognition of an adversary’s reddish lines could pb to lines inadvertently being crossed, but it could besides restrain a state from engaging successful actions that whitethorn trigger a atomic response,” adept Lora Saalman notes successful a commentary for the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Has Pakistan’s atomic posture changed?

Pakistan has moved from an ambiguous argumentation of not spelling retired a doctrine to a much vocal “No NFU” argumentation successful caller years.

In May 2024, Kidwai, the atomic bid bureau adviser, said during a seminar that Islamabad “does not person a No First Use policy”.

As significantly, Pakistan has, since 2011, developed a bid of alleged tactical atomic weapons. TNWs are short-range atomic weapons designed for much contained strikes and are meant to beryllium utilized connected the battlefield against an opposing service without causing wide destruction.

In 2015, then-Foreign Secretary Aizaz Chaudhry confirmed that TNWs could beryllium utilized successful a imaginable aboriginal struggle with India.

In reality, however, experts pass that these warheads, too, tin person explosive yields of up to 300 kilotonnes, oregon 20 times that of the weaponry that destroyed Hiroshima. Not lone could specified explosions beryllium disastrous, but immoderate experts accidental that they mightiness good impact Pakistan’s ain borderline populations.