Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Here’s what AI predicts

EXPLAINER

Al Jazeera put nine leading AI models to the test to predict the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup champion.

As the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup enters its final stages, AJLabs asked nine leading AI models to predict the tournament’s final podium based on all available data for each team, including:

• Team strength
• Squad quality
• Coaching
• Historical performance
• Team’s performance during the current tournament

France emerged as the favourite to lift the trophy, receiving five (Gemini, Grock, DeepSeek, Le Chat and Qwen) of the nine champion votes.

Argentina, the defending world champions, received the remaining four votes (ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot and Meta AI).

France’s forward #10 Kylian Mbappe celebrates scoring his team’s first goal during the 2026 World Cup football tournament quarterfinal match between France and Morocco at Boston Stadium in Foxborough on July 9, 2026 [Odd Andersen/AFP]

Predictions for the runner-up were more divided: France and Argentina each received three votes, followed by England with two and Spain with one.

Spain was the clear favourite to finish third, receiving six of the nine third-place predictions, while England and France each received fewer votes.

Lamine Yamal celebrates after the match as Spain qualify for the semifinal stage of the World Cup [Gary Vasquez/Reuters]

The predictions reflect a broad AI consensus around the four remaining contenders, France, Argentina, Spain and England, but also highlight differences in how leading language models weigh recent performances, squad depth and tournament momentum.

The AI predictions come as the tournament reaches the semifinals. France will face Spain on July 14 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, while England will meet Argentina on July 15 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

The third-place playoff will be played on July 18, before the World Cup final on July 19 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Champion predictions

• France: 5 models
• Argentina: 4 models

Runner-up predictions

• France: 3 models
• Argentina: 3 models
• England: 2 models
• Spain: 1 model

Third-place predictions

• Spain: 6 models
• England: 2 models
• France: 1 model