What did India and Pakistan gain – and lose – in their military standoff?

Islamabad, Pakistan – Four days aft a May 10 ceasefire pulled India and Pakistan backmost from the brink of a full-fledged warfare pursuing days of rapidly escalating subject tensions, a conflict of narratives has breached out, with each state claiming “victory” implicit the other.

The struggle erupted aft gunmen killed 26 civilians successful Pahalgam, successful Indian-administered Kashmir, connected April 22. A little-known equipped group, The Resistance Front (TRF), initially claimed responsibility, with India accusing Pakistan of backing it. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised retaliation, adjacent though Pakistan denied immoderate relation successful the attack.

After a bid of tit-for-tat diplomatic measures betwixt the neighbours, tensions exploded militarily. Early connected the greeting of May 7, India fired missiles astatine what it described arsenic “terrorist” bases not conscionable successful Pakistan-administered Kashmir, but besides 4 sites successful Pakistan’s Punjab province.

In the pursuing days, some sides launched slayer drone strikes astatine each other’s territory and blamed 1 different for initiating the attacks.

Tensions peaked connected Saturday erstwhile India and Pakistan fired missiles astatine each other’s subject bases. India initially targeted 3 Pakistani airbases, including 1 successful Rawalpindi, the garrison metropolis which is location to the office of the Pakistan Army, earlier past launching projectiles astatine different Pakistani bases. Pakistan’s missiles targeted subject installations crossed the country’s frontier with India and Indian-administered Kashmir, striking astatine slightest 4 facilities.

Then, arsenic the satellite braced for full warfare betwixt the nuclear-armed neighbours, US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire, which helium claimed had been mediated by the United States. Pakistan explicit gratitude to the US, adjacent arsenic India insisted the determination to halt warring was made solely by the 2 neighbours without immoderate third-party intervention.

Since the announcement, some countries person held quality conferences, presenting “evidence” of their “achievements”. On Monday, elder subject officials successful India and Pakistan spoke by phone, pledging to uphold the ceasefire successful the coming days.

However, analysts accidental neither broadside tin genuinely assertion to person emerged from the post-April 22 situation with a definite precocious hand. Instead, they say, some India and Pakistan tin assertion strategical gains adjacent arsenic they each besides suffered losses.

The debris of a drone lying connected the crushed aft it was changeable down by the Indian aerial defence system, connected the outskirts of Amritsar, connected May 10, 2025 [Narinder Nanu/AFP]

Internationalising Kashmir: Pakistan’s gain, India’s loss

The subject standoff past week – similar 3 of the 4 wars betwixt India and Pakistan – had roots successful the 2 countries’ quality implicit the Kashmir region.

Pakistan and India administer antithetic parts of Kashmir, on with China, which governs 2 constrictive strips. India claims each of Kashmir, portion Pakistan claims the portion India – but not Islamabad’s state China – administers.

After the 1971 warfare betwixt India and Pakistan, which led to the instauration of Bangladesh, New Delhi and Islamabad inked the Simla Agreement, which, among different things, committed them to settling “their differences by peaceful means done bilateral negotiations”.

Since then, India has argued that the Kashmir quality – and different tensions betwixt the neighbours – tin lone beryllium settled bilaterally, without third-party intervention. Pakistan, however, has cited United Nations resolutions to telephone for the planetary assemblage to play a relation successful pushing for a solution.

On Sunday, Trump said that the US was acceptable to assistance mediate a solution to the Kashmir dispute. “I volition enactment with you some to spot if, aft a 1000 years, a solution tin beryllium arrived at, concerning Kashmir,” the US president posted connected his Truth Social platform.

Walter Ladwig, a elder lecturer astatine King’s College London, said the latest struggle gave Pakistan a accidental to internationalise the Kashmir issue, which had been its longstanding strategical goal.

“Islamabad welcomed mediation from a scope of countries, including the US, framing the resulting ceasefire arsenic grounds of the request for outer involvement,” Ladwig told Al Jazeera.

By contrast, helium said, India had to judge a ceasefire brokered externally, alternatively than ending the struggle connected its ain terms.

Sudha Ramachandran, the South Asia exertion for The Diplomat magazine, said that Modi’s authorities successful India whitethorn person strengthened its nationalist enactment basal done its subject operation, though it whitethorn person besides mislaid immoderate home governmental points with the ceasefire.

“It was capable to people points among its nationalist hawkish enactment base. But the ceasefire has not gone down good among hardliners,” Ramachandran said.

Highlighting ‘terrorism’: India’s gain, Pakistan’s loss

However, analysts besides accidental the spiral successful tensions past week, and its trigger successful the signifier of the Pahalgam attack, helped India too.

“Diplomatically, India succeeded successful refocusing planetary attraction connected Pakistan-based militant groups, renewing calls for Islamabad to instrumentality meaningful action,” Ladwig said.

He referred to “the reputational outgo [for Pakistan] of erstwhile again being associated with militant groups operating from its soil”.

“While Islamabad denied engagement and called for neutral investigations, the load of impervious successful planetary forums progressively rests connected Pakistan to show proactive counterterrorism efforts,” Ladwig added.

India has agelong accused Pakistan of financing, grooming and sheltering equipped groups that enactment the secession of Kashmir from India. Pakistan insists it lone provides diplomatic and motivation enactment to Kashmir’s separatist movement.

Planes down whitethorn beryllium Pakistan’s gain

India claimed that its strikes connected May 7 killed much than 100 “terrorists”. Pakistan said the Indian missiles had deed mosques and residential areas, sidesplitting lone civilians –  successful total, including children.

Islamabad besides claimed that it scrambled its combatant planes to respond and had brought down aggregate Indian jets.

India has neither confirmed nor denied those claims, but Pakistan’s subject has publically shared details that it says place the planes that were changeable down. French and US officials person confirmed that astatine slightest 1 Rafale and 1 Russian-made pitchy were mislaid by India.

Indian officials person besides confirmed to Al Jazeera that astatine slightest 2 planes crashed successful Indian-administered territory, but did not clarify which state they belonged to.

With some India and Pakistan agreeing that neither side’s jets had crossed their frontier, the beingness of debris from a crashed level successful Indian-administered territory suggests they were apt Indian, accidental analysts.

The ceasefire coming aft that suggests a summation for Pakistan, Asfandyar Mir, a elder chap astatine the Stimson Center successful Washington, DC, told Al Jazeera. “Especially, the downing of the craft confirmed by assorted autarkic sources. So, it [Pakistan] whitethorn spot the ceasefire arsenic being amended for consolidating that dividend.”

Muhammad Shoaib, an world and information expert astatine Quaid-i-Azam University successful Islamabad, called India’s strikes against Pakistan a strategical miscalculation. “Their speechmaking of Pakistan’s quality to deed backmost was flawed,” helium said.

Ludwig, however, said it would beryllium a mistake to overstate the value of immoderate Pakistani successes, specified arsenic the imaginable downing of Indian jets. “These are, astatine best, symbolic victories. They bash not correspond a wide oregon unambiguous subject gain,” helium said.

Residents locomotion done the main bazaar, a time aft the ceasefire betwixt India and Pakistan was announced, successful Chakothi metropolis successful Pakistan-administered Kashmir connected May 10, 2025 [Roshan Mughal/AP Photo]

Further scope crossed borderline whitethorn beryllium India’s gain

In galore ways, analysts accidental that the much meaty subject accomplishment was India’s.

In summation to Kotli and Muzaffarabad successful Pakistan-administered Kashmir, Indian missiles connected May 7 besides targeted 4 sites successful Punjab, Pakistan’s astir populous authorities and the country’s economical nerve-centre.

Over the adjacent 2 days, India besides fired drones that reached heavy wrong Pakistani territory, including large Pakistani colonisation centres specified arsenic Lahore and Karachi.

And connected May 10, Indian missiles deed 3 Pakistani airbases that were deeper successful Pakistan’s Punjab than the Indian bases Pakistan deed that time were successful Indian territory.

Simply put, India demonstrated greater scope than Pakistan did. It was the archetypal clip since the 1971 warfare betwixt them that India had managed to deed Punjab.

Launching a subject effect not conscionable crossed the Line of Control, the 2 countries’ de-facto borderline successful Kashmir, but heavy into Pakistan had been India’s superior goal, said Ramchandran. And India achieved it.

Ludwig, too, said that India’s occurrence successful targeting Punjab represented a superior breach of Pakistan’s antiaircraft posture.

Will the ceasefire hold?

Military officials from some countries who spoke connected Monday and agreed to clasp the ceasefire besides agreed to instrumentality contiguous steps to trim their troops’ beingness on the borders. A 2nd circular of talks is expected wrong 48 hours.

An Indian antheral watches the unrecorded telecast of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s code connected tv screens, successful Prayagraj, successful the bluish Indian authorities of Uttar Pradesh, India, Monday, May 12, 2025 [Rajesh Kumar Singh/AP Photo]

However, aboriginal that day, Indian Prime Minister Modi said that the warring had simply “paused”.

Still, the Stimson Center’s Mir believes the ceasefire could hold.

“Both sides look constraints and opportunities that person emerged during the people of the past week, which, connected balance, marque a ceasefire a amended result for them,” helium said.

Ladwig echoed that view, saying the truce reflects communal involvement successful de-escalation, adjacent if it does not resoluteness the tensions that led to the crisis.

“India has importantly changed the rules of the crippled successful this episode. The Indian authorities seems to person wholly dispensed with the crippled that allows Islamabad and Rawalpindi to assertion plausible deniability regarding anti-Indian violent groups,” helium said.

“What the Pakistani authorities and subject bash with groups connected its ungraded would look to beryllium the cardinal origin successful determining however robust the ceasefire volition be.”

Quaid-i-Azam University’s Shoaib, who is besides a probe chap astatine George Mason University successful the US, emphasised the value of continued dialogue.

He warned that maintaining bid volition beryllium connected information dynamics successful some Indian-administered Kashmir and Pakistan’s Balochistan province.

Just arsenic India accuses Pakistan of supporting cross-border separatism, Islamabad alleges that New Delhi backs a separatist insurgency successful Balochistan, a assertion India denies.

“Any consequent bout of unit has the imaginable to get bloodier and much widespread,” Shoaib said. “Both sides, going for a warfare of attrition, could inflict important harm connected municipality populations, without gaining thing from the conflict.”