U.S. recession no longer likely after trade truce, says Barclays

Reuters

Thu, May 15, 2025, 11:00 PM 1 min read

LONDON (Reuters) -Barclays nary longer expects the U.S. system to gaffe into a recession aboriginal this twelvemonth and has revised up its maturation forecasts, fixed signs of a de-escalation successful U.S.-China commercialized tensions, the slope said successful a enactment released precocious Thursday.

Barclays said it present expects the U.S. system to turn 0.5% this twelvemonth and 1.6% adjacent year, up from erstwhile forecasts of -0.3% and 1.5%, respectively.

Reduced uncertainty and an improved economical backdrop besides led Barclays to assistance its euro country maturation expectations. It present forecasts level economical maturation this year, compared to a 0.2% contraction previously.

Barclays noted it inactive expects a method euro portion recession successful the 2nd fractional of 2025, but with maturation contracting by little than antecedently forecast.

"Overall, we stay downbeat astir the maturation outlook successful the euro country due to the fact that uncertainty remains precise elevated and the negotiations connected reciprocal tariffs betwixt the European Union (EU) and the U.S. stay astatine a method level and determination are nary signs of progress," Barclays said successful a note.

(Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Amanda Cooper)