Trump's mediation offer on Kashmir puts India in a tight spot

For decades, if there's 1 happening that's been a taboo successful the Indian overseas ministry, it is third-party mediation - peculiarly successful the long-running quality with Pakistan implicit Kashmir.

Those successful the know, then, are not amazed that US President Donald Trump - known for his unorthodox diplomacy - has touched a earthy nervus successful Delhi.

On Saturday, helium took to societal media to denote that India and Pakistan - aft 4 tense days of cross-border clashes - had agreed to a "full and contiguous ceasefire", brokered by the US.

Later, successful different station helium said: "I volition enactment with you some to spot if, aft a 1000 years, a solution tin beryllium arrived at, concerning Kashmir."

The Kashmir quality dates backmost to 1947, erstwhile India got independency from British regularisation and was partitioned to make Pakistan. Both neighbours assertion the Kashmir portion successful whole, but administer it lone successful part.

Several rounds of bilateral talks implicit the decades person not yielded immoderate resolution. India treats Kashmir arsenic an integral portion of its territory and rules retired immoderate negotiation, peculiarly done a 3rd party.

The latest flare-up began aft India carried retired aerial strikes connected what it called violent infrastructure wrong Pakistan successful the aftermath of the onslaught connected tourists successful Indian-administered Kashmir past month, sidesplitting 26 people, chiefly tourists.

India blames Pakistan of engagement successful the incident, a complaint denied by Islamabad.

Trump's involution came arsenic warring betwixt the 2 nuclear-armed rivals was threatening to spiral into a full-blown conflict.

The 2 sides were utilizing combatant jets, missiles and drones and said they were targeting each other's subject installations, chiefly successful the borderline areas.

While US mediators, alongside diplomatic backchannels, prevented a bigger conflagration, President Trump's connection has enactment Delhi successful a spot.

"Obviously, it would not beryllium invited by the Indian side. It goes against our stated presumption for galore years," Shyam Saran, a erstwhile Indian overseas secretary, tells the BBC.

Islamabad, connected the different hand, has welcomed Trump's comments.

"We besides admit President Trump's expressed willingness to enactment efforts aimed astatine the solution of the Jammu and Kashmir quality - a longstanding contented that has superior implications for bid and information successful South Asia and beyond," a foreign ministry connection said..

Delhi's presumption connected Kashmir has hardened, particularly aft it withdrew the peculiar presumption of Jammu and Kashmir successful 2019, triggering wide protests successful Kashmir.

President Trump's caller comments person irked galore Indians, who spot this arsenic an effort to "internationalise" the Kashmir dispute.

The main absorption Congress enactment wanted an mentation from the authorities and an all-party gathering connected the "ceasefire announcements made from Washington DC first".

"Have we opened the doors to third-party mediation? The Indian National Congress would similar to inquire if diplomatic channels betwixt India and Pakistan are being reopened," said the Congress enactment spokesperson Jairam Ramesh.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statement announcing the ceasefire besides said that the 2 countries person besides agreed "to commencement talks connected a wide acceptable of issues astatine a neutral site". This has caught the Indians by surprise.

Delhi has refused to clasp discussions with Islamabad, accusing its neighbour of supporting what it calls cross-border terrorism.

Historically, India has opposed immoderate third-party mediation, quoting an statement signed successful 1972 aft a warfare betwixt the 2 countries a twelvemonth earlier. As per the Simla statement signed by the country's leaders, they "resolved to settee their differences by peaceful means done bilateral negotiations".

Indian officials besides reason that adjacent erstwhile they scope an knowing with a civilian authorities successful Pakistan, the country's almighty subject launched operations undermining those deals. They constituent to the Kargil warfare successful 1999, erstwhile different struggle betwixt the 2 countries began aft a radical of Pakistan-backed militants occupied strategical areas successful Indian-administered Kashmir.

The struggle took spot months aft the past Indian and Pakistani premier ministers agreed to resoluteness issues done bilateral negotiations and refrain from interfering successful each other's interior matters.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's authorities has not formally responded to President Trump's connection to mediate.

But Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said: "India has consistently maintained a steadfast and uncompromising stance against coercion successful each its forms and manifestations. It volition proceed to bash so."

It is being seen arsenic an denotation that India whitethorn not beryllium restarting nonstop bilateral talks soon.

The presumption from Pakistan is different.

"Pakistan has ever wanted third-party mediation successful the Kashmir contented successful the lack of communal spot betwixt the 2 countries," Imtiaz Gul, the enforcement manager of Centre for Research and Security Studies successful Islamabad, tells the BBC.

"Now a superpower is consenting to instrumentality its cervix out. Pakistan volition spot this arsenic a motivation victory," Mr Gul says.

Pakistani strategical experts similar Syed Muhammad Ali reason it is due to the fact that of India's accordant refusal to prosecute with Pakistan that the planetary assemblage should measurement successful to debar immoderate aboriginal conflict.

"Kashmir is 1 of the astir captious issues for the planetary community. The caller accelerated escalation proves that the sabre-rattling tin spell retired of hand," Mr Ali says.

India's assertive diplomacy, peculiarly since Modi took implicit successful 2014, has been seen arsenic a motion of its assurance arsenic a rising planetary economical power.

But it volition person to propulsion disconnected a pugnacious balancing act, to stave disconnected Trump's advances.

The US has courted India successful caller years arsenic a bulwark against an progressively assertive China. India is simply a cardinal subordinate of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue radical (Quad), on with the US, Australia and Japan, that was formed to antagonistic Chinese expansionism successful the Indo-Pacific.

In caller decades, Washington has besides sold modern transport planes, helicopters and different subject instrumentality to Delhi, which is keen to modernise its 1.4 cardinal beardown military, that relies heavy connected Russian weaponry.

The erstwhile American administrations were alert of India's sensitivities towards the Kashmir contented and mostly stayed distant from interfering with it. But with Trump, there's a question people implicit whether that presumption inactive holds.

The US is the largest trading spouse of India with bilateral commercialized reaching astir $130bn (£98bn) successful 2024. Modi's authorities is presently negotiating a commercialized woody with Washington to debar tariffs.

Delhi volition person to locomotion a good line. It volition beryllium averse to taking up Trump's connection to mediate, oregon spot the US-brokered ceasefire, oregon "understanding" arsenic it calls it, going beyond the existent subject tensions. But it's besides keen to person a favourable trading narration with the US.

Any effort to broaden the talks - connected contentious bilateral issues similar the present suspended stream water-sharing pact oregon the presumption of Kashmir - volition invitation beardown disapproval astatine the home level, a trap that Modi is good alert of.