There are three ways moderates could yet save the Tories. One is to renounce Brexit | Polly Toynbee

The thanksgiving work for the Tory grandee Michael Ancram past week resembled the ceremonial of his party. Amid an array of accepted Conservatives specified arsenic John Major and a multitude of that aged ilk, 1 perceiver tells maine determination was nary motion of the existent shadiness cabinet: they beryllium to a antithetic enactment altogether. After their lowest ballot ever past week, is it each over?

A motion of beingness stirs among the embers. All is not rather lost, if the silenced cohort of moderates perceive to the likes of a caller enactment member. David Gauke has rejoined the Conservative party, wherever helium was justness caput earlier being ejected for rebelling against Boris Johnson’s threatened “no deal” Brexit. He wasn’t definite the enactment would instrumentality him back, helium was acceptable to constitute astir his 2nd rejection, but the machine said yes. He’s backmost to combat and combat again to prevention his enactment from its rightward march into Faragism.

A phalanx of those expelled and those who walked, on with immoderate quiescent Tory MPs successful parliament, spot the glimmer of a accidental of creating a renewed enactment with values they telephone halfway conservatism. Dominic Grieve, the erstwhile lawyer wide and besides expelled by Johnson successful 2019, is different appalled astatine the galloping run by Robert Jenrick to pb the enactment into the bosom of the acold right: Jenrick was caught by Sky revealing his “unite the right” program to merge 1 mode oregon different with Nigel Farage.

“This is not my party,” says Grieve, who has not reapplied for membership. “The enactment utilized to enactment populist sentiment arsenic a occupation but ne'er inflamed it oregon echoed its vitriol. Jenrick runs a run that is racist: there’s nary different mode to picture it, demonising immigrants arsenic rapists and knife-killers who free-load connected us. It’s utterly reprehensible, stoking emotions that origin riots, precisely arsenic Farage does.”

He points with disgust to Jenrick’s watercourse of migrant hatred posted connected X: “Foreign criminals dodge deportation. Illegal migrants get to stay.” Here’s axenic Trumpism: “Equality, Diversity and Inclusion has go a Trojan equine for anti-white discrimination. It’s created identity-based recruitment, wherever opportunities are offered connected the colour of someone’s skin, not the contented of their character. This state-sanctioned racism indispensable end.” This erstwhile justness caput issues Trumpian threats to the judiciary: “The simplest solution is to region judges with a grounds of activism.” All that, says Grieve, “is the hallmark of the caller Conservative party”.

Other mean Tories, sources say, volition not talk publically now, but astir 20 MPs could articulation absorption to a Jenrick demarche: nary names for fearfulness of deselection. Justine Greening connected these pages spelled out the party’s “dead parrot” state, scoring a lowest-ever 15% successful section elections, a bulk lone among the over-70s. But she didn’t rather person a look oregon a way to restoration. What would it take? A breathtaking turn.

Public contrition is indispensable “to region america from Johnson and Liz Truss, acknowledging her effect connected the economy”, says Gauke. But here’s the large one: repenting of Brexit, confessing it was a superior error; not needfully advocating an instant rejoin, but rapidly repairing EU relations. That could summon backmost 4 cardinal Tory remainers who, they say, fled post-referendum. Who could bash that? Their champion anticipation is for the affable and fundamentally mean James Cleverly to measurement guardant arsenic an erstwhile Brexiter to archer the information astir however severely Brexit turned out, a stunning determination to specify these new/old Conservatives.

The different indispensable shift, they say, is electoral reform, the lone mode to divided from Jenrickism, allowing alternate opinions connected the close and scuppering Jenrick’s far-right bloc. “First-past-the-post nary longer fits five-party voting,” Gauke and different rebels say, rather rightly. Here Labour MPs request to beryllium up and listen: their party, which backed electoral betterment astatine its conference, needs it urgently to support the state against the far-right risk.

Labour radical mightiness chortle with glee astatine Tory disintegration. But successful the combat against the utmost right, Tory moderates are needed to instrumentality connected Faragism. Without them, the state has nary mean alternate to the close of Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens and others, risking calamity if Labour is unpopular successful 2029. Labour’s win of 63% of seats connected 34% of votes could beryllium mirrored by Farage/Jenrickites. Look astatine Kent past week, wherever Reform won 70% of seats connected conscionable 37% of the vote, oregon Exeter wherever Labour topped the canvass but won not a azygous seat.

Naturally these new/old Conservatives person nary entreaty to societal democrats, aft each – these Tories are perfectly conservative. Talking to them for this column, their exemplary is arsenic follows: they are socially liberal, downplaying civilization wars, but deliberation woke went acold excessively far. These Heseltinian Tories are beardown connected defence and beardown connected gathering regeneration, specified arsenic the erstwhile lawman premier minister’s development corporations. Strongly pro-business, 1 tells me: “No much ignoring productive concern successful the southbound successful favour of loss-making steelworkers successful Scunthorpe.” They are pro-free marketplace and privation “to exposure Farage’s sloppy thinking, particularly connected nationalisation, excessively acold from Thatcherism.” They privation nationalist work efficiency, saying Labour is successful the pockets of unions, connected the broadside of producers, not consumers and immoderate questioning the semipermanent viability of the payment state. They situation Liberal Democrats’ “unrealistic” policies: “they’re lone a protestation party”, different says. Divided connected slowing nett zero, agreed connected “we’d burnish acquisition excellence and opportunity”. A “pro-enterprise” taxation strategy would repeal non-dom taxes that expel the rich. Lower taxes and spending are astatine their core, but pragmatically, lone erstwhile possible. Defence bonds would rise funds.

The merchantability is simply a “sensible party” reclaiming the “affluent, educated aspirational mediate classes”, portion appealing to accepted working-class Tories with respect for heritage, institutions of the state, monarchy and parliament. No soap-box grandstanding but a grown-up governmental tone. No much atrocious ya-boo Tory property releases respective times a day, galore with utterly mendacious attacks connected Labour: they would reconstruct immoderate governmental dignity, backing the authorities erstwhile it’s right, attacking selectively connected cardinal matters.

It’s a hard task. Prof Tim Bale, aficionado connected the Tories, warns that the Lib Dems are present firmly rooted successful confederate Tory turf. He points retired with brutal realism that voters divided connected left/right, liberal/reactionary axes clump thinly successful this 1 federation quadrant of socially wide but economically dry: astir apt 20% of voters. But successful these fractured days, 20% would spot disconnected the hard right. However, each this is unicorn and rainbow talk, unless Labour uses these adjacent 4 years for electoral reform. If they refuse, they had amended beryllium 100% definite it won’t acquisition powerfulness to an unspeakable Farage/Jenrick alliance.

• Polly Toynbee is simply a Guardian columnist