‘Significant step’: Russia-Ukraine talks in Turkiye – what to expect

Russia and Ukraine are poised for talks successful Turkiye connected Thursday, adjacent though the prospects of President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy meeting directly for the archetypal clip successful 3 years were dashed by the Kremlin precocious connected Wednesday.

United States President Donald Trump, who had earlier indicated that helium mightiness articulation the negotiations, volition besides not attend, according to American officials.

Here’s what we cognize astir the talks, what prompted them, who’s expected to attend, and wherefore the negotiations matter:

Why are the talks being held?

On Sunday, Putin projected the idea of nonstop negotiations betwixt Russia and Ukraine successful Turkiye, alternatively of the rounds of indirect talks that the US and others person tried to mediate betwixt the neighbours astatine war. Putin referenced nonstop talks that took spot successful 2022 portion pitching for their resumption.

“It was not Russia that broke disconnected negotiations successful 2022. It was Kyiv. Nevertheless, we are proposing that Kyiv resume nonstop negotiations without immoderate preconditions,” Putin said connected Sunday.

In February 2022, Russia launched its full-scale penetration of Ukraine. Shortly after, Russia and Ukraine held talks successful the Turkish capital, Istanbul.

According to Zelenskyy, the talks fell isolated due to the fact that Russia demanded that Ukraine concede the Donbas region, which spans Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions – parts of which Russia occupied during its invasion. Zelenskyy added that Russia wanted Ukraine to surrender long-range weaponry, marque law amendments to state neutrality and importantly trim its equipped forces. “There were ne'er immoderate negotiations; it was an ultimatum from a murderer,” Zelenskyy said astatine the time.

While Zelenskyy had earlier held that immoderate bid statement would necessitate Russia to springiness up Ukrainian territory it had occupied, successful December past year, Zelenskyy said the “hot phase” of the warfare could extremity if NATO offered information guarantees for the portion of Ukraine presently nether Kyiv’s control.

He added that the instrumentality of onshore that Russia has occupied could beryllium diplomatically negotiated later.

“The unit that the US has exerted to effort to bring an extremity to the warring successful Ukraine has evolved implicit time,” Keir Giles, a elder consulting chap astatine the London-based Chatham House deliberation tank, told Al Jazeera. “It appears that the astir caller elements successful that evolution, peculiarly successful presumption of European solidarity with Ukraine, person led Russia to prosecute successful nonstop talks.”

Putin’s caller propulsion for talks came a time aft Ukraine’s 4 large European allies gave Putin an ultimatum to judge an unconditional 30-day ceasefire oregon look renewed sanctions. This ultimatum came aft leaders of the European countries, France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Poland, visited Kyiv.

They gave Putin a deadline until May 12. On Sunday, May 11, Putin – without committing to a ceasefire – said: “We are committed to superior negotiations with Ukraine. Their intent is to destruct the basal causes of the conflict, to found a long-term, lasting bid for the humanities perspective.”

Where are they being held?

The talks are being held successful the Turkish metropolis of Istanbul, which straddles the bound betwixt Asia and Europe.

What relation did Trump play successful this?

The 4 European leaders – Britain’s Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s Friedrich Merz and Poland’s Donald Tusk – said that they had briefed Trump astir their ultimatum to Russia implicit a telephone telephone and suggested that helium was connected board.

But aft Putin called for nonstop talks betwixt Kyiv and Moscow, Trump issued a connection connected his Truth Social level asking Ukraine to conscionable with Russia “immediately”.

Trump ran his run for the 2024 predetermination connected the committedness to bring a swift extremity to the Ukraine war. The Trump medication held aggregate meetings, starting February, with Russian and Ukrainian representatives separately successful Saudi Arabia successful attempts to broker a deal.

Also successful April, the Trump medication indicated that it was taking a measurement backmost from providing information guarantees to Ukraine. The Trump medication said it wanted Europe to instrumentality the pb successful supporting Ukraine’s defence instead, noting that the US had different priorities, including borderline security.

In caller weeks, however, Trump and his team, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, person expressed increasing vexation astatine the deficiency of meaningful advancement successful negotiations and person threatened to locomotion retired of efforts to mediate peace.

Explaining his insistence that Ukraine articulation the May 15 Istanbul talks, Trump argued: “At slightest they volition beryllium capable to find whether oregon not a woody is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the US, volition cognize wherever everything stands, and tin proceed accordingly!”

Who volition beryllium there?

“I supported President Trump with the thought of nonstop talks with Putin. I person openly expressed my readiness to meet. I volition beryllium successful Turkiye. I anticipation that the Russians volition not evade the meeting,” Zelenskyy wrote successful an X station connected Monday.

On Tuesday, Zelenskyy announced helium volition beryllium successful Ankara connected Thursday, wherever helium volition conscionable Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The talks with Russia, however, are expected to beryllium held successful Istanbul subsequently.

Trump has said helium volition nonstop Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg to be the talks successful Istanbul.

Russia connected Wednesday nighttime announced its squad for the meeting. Vladimir Medinsky, a adjacent Putin adjutant and erstwhile civilization curate who besides led erstwhile rounds of unsuccessful talks with Ukraine successful 2022, volition pb Moscow’s team. With him volition beryllium Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin and the manager of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Igor Kostyukov.

Trump’s earlier connection to be the talks himself had been welcomed by Kyiv. “All of america successful Ukraine would admit it if President Trump could beryllium determination with america astatine this gathering successful Turkiye. This is the close idea. We tin alteration a lot,” Zelenskyy had said.

However, precocious connected Wednesday, US officials clarified that Trump would not beryllium attending.

The US president is presently successful the Middle East, wherever helium spent Wednesday successful Qatar, aft visiting Saudi Arabia a time earlier. On Thursday, Trump volition beryllium successful the United Arab Emirates earlier returning to Washington.

What does Putin’s lack mean?

Zelenskyy had earlier said helium would beryllium contiguous astatine the talks only if Putin besides attended. “Putin is the 1 who determines everything successful Russia, truthful helium is the 1 who has to resoluteness the war. This is his war. Therefore, the negotiations should beryllium with him,” Zelenskyy said successful a station connected X connected Tuesday.

With Putin present nary longer poised to attend, it is unclear if Zelenskyy volition personally enactment successful the talks oregon whether helium volition permission it to his squad to articulation the negotiations.

Yet, successful galore ways, Zelenskyy scored implicit Putin by throwing down the gauntlet and asking him to attend.

“Zelenskyy has presented a situation to Russia to amusement that it has genuine interest; it is up to Russia whether it meets this situation oregon not,” said Giles.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had besides pledged to impulse Putin to be the talks.

What’s connected the table?

It is hard to foretell what mightiness specifically beryllium discussed successful the Turkiye talks.

“It would beryllium rash to foretell whether determination volition beryllium immoderate meaningful treatment astatine all, since the acceptable outcomes for some are inactive acold apart,” Giles said. “Russia wants to neutralise Ukraine arsenic an autarkic sovereign state, portion Ukraine wants to survive.”

At the moment, Ukraine has projected an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, portion Russia has insisted that a bid of its demands beryllium accepted earlier it joins specified a truce. Moscow said that it wants assurances implicit the monitoring mechanics for a ceasefire, and that a truce won’t beryllium utilized by Ukraine to rearm and mobilise much soldiers. Instead, Putin has announced brief, unilateral ceasefires successful caller days that Ukraine says Moscow ne'er really adhered to.

“We bash not regularisation retired that, during these negotiations, it volition beryllium imaginable to hold connected immoderate caller truces, a caller ceasefire and a existent truce, which would beryllium observed not lone by Russia, but besides by the Ukrainian side. [It] would beryllium the archetypal step, I repeat, to a semipermanent sustainable peace, and not a prologue to the continuation of the equipped conflict,” Putin said connected Sunday.

How important are these talks?

Giles said that if the talks happen, “they volition beryllium a important measurement forward”.

He added: “Anything that has been referred to arsenic bid talks [ truthful far] has not been thing of the sort,” describing the 2 parallel discussions that the US has had with Russia and Ukraine.

On March 19, the US, Ukraine and Russia announced a 30-day ceasefire connected attacks connected Russian and Ukrainian vigor infrastructure, and connected March 25, they agreed connected a Black Sea deal, halting the subject usage of commercialized vessels and the usage of unit successful the Black Sea. Both sides, however, traded blasted for violating the presumption of those agreements, which person present expired.