Is Britain really inching back towards the EU?

On a lukewarm greeting earlier this month, a radical of Metropolitan Police diplomatic extortion officers sat successful an anteroom disconnected the ornate entranceway hallway successful London's Lancaster House, sipping beverage and nibbling cocoa biscuits, portion upstairs a halfway radical of European politicians discussed the aboriginal of European cooperation.

It was an apt setting: everyplace you look successful Lancaster House, determination is grounds of the long, entangled histories of the UK and Europe. The treble expanse of its expansive staircase deliberately echoes the Palace of Versailles. Queen Victoria sat successful these rooms listening to Frederic Chopin play the soft successful 1848. Tony Blair hosted Russian President Putin present for an vigor acme successful 2003.

The important issues connected the docket astatine the Lancaster House meeting, which was hosted by the Foreign Secretary David Lammy, included the latest developments successful the warfare successful Ukraine, Europe's effect to guarantee the continent's security, and – for the archetypal clip since Brexit – a acme betwixt the UK and the European Union, which volition instrumentality spot connected 19 May.

The British authorities believes it's a important moment.

Before Brexit, British premier ministers would question to Brussels 4 times a twelvemonth oregon much for summits with the heads of the EU's institutions and its 27 subordinate states. The haggling would spell connected precocious into the night. After Brexit those ample summits stopped.

Now, the Labour government, elected past twelvemonth connected a manifesto that promised "an improved and ambitious narration with our European partners", envisages caller and regular interactions with the EU. Monday's marks the first.

Sir Keir Starmer volition big the astir elder EU leaders to motorboat a caller "partnership".

Pedro Serrano, the EU ambassador to London, has described it arsenic the "culmination of enhanced contacts astatine the highest levels since the July 2024 [UK] elections". But what volition it magnitude to?

Is what's coming a "surrender summit" arsenic the Conservatives warn; "the large British sellout" undoing bits of Brexit that Reform UK fear; oregon "a immense opportunity" the UK whitethorn beryllium astir to squander, arsenic Liberal Democrats say? Or could it beryllium an illustration of how, successful Sir Keir Starmer's words, "serious pragmatism defeats performative politics" by delivering applicable things that volition amended people's lives?

In those long, drama-filled nights of 2020, erstwhile the then-prime curate Boris Johnson was negotiating Brexit, the anticipation of a Security and Defence Partnership was discussed. But the UK's main precedence was diverging from Brussels. So thing was agreed – a notable omission, immoderate think.

Now a caller UK-EU information pact has been worked connected for months, the program is for it to beryllium the centrepiece of what's agreed.

Kaja Kallas, the EU's overseas argumentation chief, who is overseeing negotiations, was astatine the aboriginal talks astatine Lancaster House. "Our narration has had immoderate difficulties," she told me, but "considering what is going connected successful the satellite […] we request to determination guardant with this partnership."

Yet immoderate deliberation the UK should not prehend this outstretched hand.

"The cornerstone of our defence is Nato," Alex Burghart, a Conservative frontbencher, told the Commons this week. "We cognize of nary crushed wherefore Nato is insufficient."

Reform UK's lawman person Richard Tice has his ain view. "There's nary worth astatine all," helium argues. "We bash not privation to beryllium constrained by a bungling top-down bureaucratic subject structure. Our defence is guaranteed by Nato."

The authorities fires backmost connected that point, arguing that a concern volition successful nary mode undermine Nato; alternatively it volition complement it, they say, due to the fact that it volition agelong to areas beyond defence, similar the information of our economies, infrastructure, vigor supplies, adjacent migration and transnational crime.

Some manufacture experts besides judge that a information pact could boost the UK economy. Kevin Craven, main enforcement of ADS Group, a UK commercialized relation that represents aerospace, defence and information firms, is among them.

Take, for example, the SAFE (Security Action For Europe) programme that is being acceptable up by the EU, aiming to supply up to €150bn (£126bn) successful loans for caller projects. If the UK strikes a information concern with the EU, past British weapons manufacturers could perchance entree immoderate of that cash.

"There is simply a immense magnitude of involvement from European partners," says Mr Craven. "One of the challenges for defence companies successful the past mates of years, since the advent of Ukraine, is being capable to standard up their ain capableness to conscionable demand." He estimates the UK could boost the EU's defence output by a fifth.

The Liberal Democrat's Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Calum Miller, likewise believes that a information pact is simply a immense accidental for the British defence manufacture - but, helium adds, "as importantly, it's a caller strategical accidental for the UK to beryllium portion of that ongoing speech astir however we limb arsenic a continent".

Others constituent retired that the UK has already been moving with the EU connected defence ever since Russia's penetration of Ukraine – astatine Nato, and astir precocious via the alleged Coalition of the Willing.

So, successful practice, does it marque immense amounts of quality to the UK's spot successful Europe?

No, argues Jill Rutter, a erstwhile elder civilian servant who is present a elder chap astatine the UK successful a Changing Europe deliberation tank. "Because relations [on defence] person already been improving rather a agelong way."

Some of those moving connected the partnership, however, reason that it volition acceptable successful bid caller ways for the UK to prosecute and cooperate with its neighbours.

More contentious is the UK's tendency to motion what's called a 'veterinary' woody to region immoderate borderline checks connected nutrient and drink. Nick Thomas-Symonds, the Cabinet Office curate starring these negotiations, told the Commons this week that the nonsubjective to little nutrient and portion costs is successful the manifesto, truthful determination is simply a mandate for it.

Inside the nutrient industry, calls for betterment person been growing. Julianne Ponan, whose steadfast Creative Nature makes vegan snack bars, exports to 18 countries but lone a tiny proportionality goes to the EU. She says this is due to the fact that of the paperwork and inspections since Brexit.

One of her employees had to transportation samples successful her luggage connected a rider formation to Spain for a gathering to marque definite the nutrient wasn't held up astatine the border, she says.

"I deliberation this volition unfastened up immense opportunities for businesses similar mine."

But a veterinary woody whitethorn transportation governmental danger. It would necessitate the UK to align immoderate of its rules connected nutrient and portion with EU ones, and determination in-step with Brussels implicit time. And those rules are taxable to oversight by EU courts.

"I telephone it the surrender summit," says Andrew Griffith, the Conservative Shadow Business and Trade Secretary. Under this woody the UK would suffer "our state to acceptable our ain rules", helium adds.

The Conservatives accidental they "fought agelong and hard" to "take backmost power of our laws, our borders, our money" – and that this should not present beryllium reversed.

Reform UK has not held backmost successful its language: "We deliberation hole for the Great British merchantability out. That's the bottommost line, and it volition beryllium dressed up arsenic a reset," Richard Tice says.

"Why would you privation to reset and get person to a patently failing economical model? The EU is struggling adjacent much than we are. We should beryllium diverging arsenic accelerated arsenic we tin distant from that."

But Labour's Thomas-Symonds dismisses these views arsenic a "rehash of the arguments of the past".

On the different extremity of the spectrum is the accusation that Sir Keir is acold excessively cautious. Calum Miller of the Liberal Democrats says helium knows of businesses "gnashing their teeth successful vexation that they conscionable can't exploit opportunities to enactment with and commercialized with Europe".

His enactment wants the UK to research a Customs Union with the EU. It would marque moving goods easier, but mean we couldn't motion our ain commercialized deals.

David Henig, a erstwhile elder commercialized negotiator, has been talking to some sides "hoping to help, to benignant of navigate them in".

"The acme is simply a measurement forward, not a measurement change," helium says, "A flimsy deepening of the commercialized ties, alternatively than thing dramatically new."

A woody connected nutrient and portion checks would present precise little, helium believes, due to the fact that nutrient and portion is specified a constricted portion of trade. "If you were, for example, aligning UK and EU rules connected concern products, you'd get a overmuch bigger economical impact".

Jill Rutter thinks that a veterinary woody would not beryllium "economically world shattering" – but if it goes well, she argues that it could supply "early impervious of concept" for further UK-EU cooperation.

After Brexit, galore British fishermen were disappointed erstwhile Boris Johnson's authorities agreed to fto EU boats proceed overmuch arsenic before, taking important catches from UK waters. Those arrangements expire adjacent year. The EU wants them extended.

David Davis who, arsenic Brexit minister, led immoderate of the archetypal negotiations for the UK, told maine sportfishing was "totemic" for Brussels. London conceded excessively easily, helium thinks.

"Europeans got what they wanted first, and past we had a haggle from a anemic position."

So helium adds, "If I was giving proposal to the government, I would say, pugnacious it out" and usage sportfishing arsenic a lever to question concessions.

But, arsenic the UK recovered before, Brussels has cards to play. Much of the food caught by British fishermen is sold to buyers connected the Continent and the UK needs entree to that market.

Some EU coastal states, similar France and Denmark, are prepared to thrust a hard bargain, demanding that London concedes connected sportfishing rights successful instrumentality for things it wants. Early on, adjacent signing the Security Partnership was being linked to statement connected a sportfishing deal. The haggling volition beryllium tough.

And finally, there's an thought that has prompted overmuch involvement successful caller months: a younker mobility deal, done which under-30s from the UK and EU could unrecorded and enactment successful each other's countries.

For a agelong clip the authorities said determination were "no plans" for specified a woody – but earlier this period they changed course, with Labour's Thomas-Symonds saying that "A smart, controlled younker mobility strategy would of people person benefits for our young people".

It's apt that would mean precise constricted numbers allowed to participate the UK, and lone with a visa, for a constricted time.

Under those conditions, ministers anticipation it would not inflate nett migration numbers. It's acold from what the EU would like.

The UK already has akin schemes with 13 countries, including Australia, New Zealand and Japan.

"When we are comfy having those relationships, wherefore are we truthful averse to having it with our nearest neighbours?" Calum Miller asks, "It conscionable doesn't truly marque sense".

Paula Surridge, a prof of governmental sociology astatine Bristol University, argues that nationalist views connected migration are much nuanced than galore radical think. "Voters attraction astir astir what they comprehend arsenic amerciable migration – tiny vessel crossings and truthful on," she says, "People coming present to survey oregon to work, peculiarly young people, are not a peculiar origin for concern" for most.

"There volition decidedly beryllium a radical of voters that are upset [about imaginable deals], but they were ne'er going to ballot Labour."

Of those who backed Labour successful 2024, she adds, astir 3 quarters antecedently voted Remain successful the Brexit referendum. The governmental hazard to the authorities of signing pacts with the EU is "smaller than it appears", she adds.

Conservative pollster Lord Hayward is much cautious – and is acrophobic that a woody whitethorn airs a "bear trap" for the authorities if it's seen arsenic providing escaped question to young Europeans. "It volition supply superior difficulties for them to travel to an statement connected thing which could easy beryllium portrayed arsenic EU rank 2.0."

Even earlier Sir Keir's upcoming acme connected Monday, his opponents are raising that spectre.

"All of his musculus representation has been to get person to the European governmental union," says Mr Griffith. "I americium disquieted astir our premier minister, with that baggage, with those preconceived ideas, […] trying to negociate a amended woody with the EU."

Richard Tice says his enactment could simply undo immoderate deals with the EU. "If I'm close astir our fears, and we triumph the adjacent wide election, we volition conscionable reverse the lot. The full lot."

But Mr Thomas-Symonds is of the presumption that Monday volition amusement the authorities is "not returning to the Customs Union, Single Market, oregon Freedom of Movement", each reddish lines it has pledged not to cross.

Instead it volition beryllium astir "making Brexit enactment successful the interests of the British people".

Back astatine Lancaster House, the politicians person moved on, heading to much meetings successful Albania and Turkey to grapple with the issues facing the continent. But successful a quiescent hallway successful the location is simply a coating from the 1850s of the Duke of Wellington inspecting troops successful London's Hyde Park.

In it, helium sits connected a achromatic stallion, raising his white-feathered chapeau to salute the cavalry - a tribute to the premier curate and subject leader who defeated Napoleon astatine the Battle of Waterloo.

The upcoming acme won't beryllium arsenic momentous an lawsuit successful the UK's analyzable past with Europe. But a modern British person astir to plunge into the fray of European authorities mightiness intermission for thought present – perhaps, for conscionable a moment.