In Istanbul, Russia plays chess while the West is stuck in make-believe

As Russian and Ukrainian delegations descended connected Istanbul connected Friday successful an effort to extremity the three-year warfare successful Ukraine, the opposition betwixt the 2 parties successful the struggle couldn’t beryllium starker. One seemed assured, methodical – wide astir its goals. The other, scattered and uncertain.

Russia’s presumption connected the contours of a imaginable colony has agelong been wide – speech from its calculated ambiguity connected territorial matters, which it maintains arsenic leverage. Moscow continues to propulsion for a instrumentality to the Istanbul agreements, derailed – arsenic we present cognize – by the UK and US successful the outpouring of 2022. At the aforesaid time, it demands to clasp the territories it has occupied since past – and perchance more, though however overmuch much remains deliberately undefined.

The presumption of the pro-Ukrainian coalition, by contrast, is chaotic. The United States has adopted an astir neutral stance, portion Ukraine and its European allies are moving to forestall Washington from pressuring Kyiv into what they presumption arsenic a premature and unjust peace.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said connected Thursday that the Trump medication is unfastened to immoderate mechanics that could bring an extremity to the conflict. Meanwhile, Ukraine and its European partners are insisting connected a 30-day ceasefire arsenic a precondition for entering bid talks.

Just earlier the Istanbul negotiations began, Ukraine declared that its delegation would not sermon thing with the Russians until a ceasefire was agreed upon. European countries supported that demand, with threats of terrible sanctions they claimed they were prepared to impose. Whether Ukraine would yet driblet this request remained the cardinal constituent of uncertainty arsenic nonstop talks commenced successful Istanbul connected Friday afternoon.

When the negotiators emerged from the venue and faced the press, they near that question unanswered. The 2 parties agreed to proceed the talks, but ceasefire remains connected the array – possibly arsenic a face-saving measurement that would support Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy connected board. The Russians are highly improbable to hold to immoderate ceasefire until they spot a wide way to the last deal.

But the extremity of this ceasefire crippled was each excessively transparent – particularly to its intended audience: Donald Trump’s administration. A ceasefire intelligibly works against Russia, whose main leverage successful the negotiations is the dilatory but dependable beforehand of its troops on the 1,000+ km beforehand line.

The Ukrainian and European request was designed to beryllium rejected. Its existent intent is to derail the talks, pit Trump against Putin, and revive the longstanding strategy of trying to decision Russia done a operation of enhanced subject enactment for Ukraine and caller economical sanctions connected Moscow.

This strategy isn’t caller – and it has already outgo Ukraine dearly implicit the past 3 years: Vast territory and captious infrastructure person been lost, hundreds of thousands killed, and 6.9 cardinal people, mostly women and children, person near the state – apt for good.

In effect to what it sees arsenic manipulation, Russia sent a delegation of lower-than-expected governmental stature, but including top-level subject and diplomatic experts susceptible of discussing each method aspects of a imaginable deal. The message: Moscow is acceptable for substantive negotiations – if they determination beyond performative ultimatums.

Russia’s presumption connected the contours of a colony hasn’t shifted since the erstwhile Istanbul talks successful outpouring 2022, erstwhile it insisted connected a neutral Ukraine with a headdress connected the size of its military.

The lone quality present is territory. Under the 2022 Istanbul framework, Russia would person withdrawn to the lines of interaction arsenic they existed earlier the full-scale invasion. Now, it claims the territory seized since past – and maintains strategical ambiguity implicit the parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia inactive nether Ukrainian control, utilizing them arsenic bargaining chips.

Since the afloat penetration began, Moscow has viewed territorial concern arsenic a signifier of punishment for what it sees arsenic Ukraine’s intransigence. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova enactment it bluntly connected Thursday: “Ukrainian territory shrinks each clip Ukraine rejects negotiations.”

But territory is not the Kremlin’s main nonsubjective successful Ukraine. Its cardinal extremity is to gully a hard reddish enactment against further Western subject enlargement adjacent its borders – hence its demands to reconstruct Ukraine’s neutral presumption and trim the size of its equipped forces to a bare minimum. Moscow, however, is unfastened to the thought of Ukraine joining the EU – not slightest due to the fact that that imaginable remains highly unlikely, arsenic countries similar Poland and others successful Eastern Europe spot Ukraine’s cultivation assemblage arsenic a menace to their economical stability.

Given the existent battlefield situation, the warfare tin lone extremity connected Russian presumption – harsh and unjust arsenic they whitethorn appear. The regular gains of Russian troops and Ukraine’s dilatory territorial losses underscore this point. Every hold successful bid talks results successful a smaller Ukraine. Putin is acting similar a governmental racketeer – overmuch similar those who ran St Petersburg during his formative governmental years: The longer you resist, the much you pay.

But a woody connected these presumption would beryllium highly hard to merchantability – to Ukrainians and to Europeans, who person besides endured important economical fallout from sanctions connected Russia. The inevitable question arises: What, then, did Ukrainians combat and dice for implicit the past 3 years? They could person secured a acold amended woody nether the Minsk agreements successful 2015 – oregon adjacent the failed Istanbul woody successful 2022.

What kept Ukraine successful the combat was the illusion – cultivated by the military-industrial analyzable and intelligence operations connected societal media – that a atomic powerfulness similar Russia could beryllium decisively defeated.

The fearfulness of being exposed arsenic a large contributor to Ukraine’s suffering – alongside Russia – is what present drives European politicians to support digging a deeper spread for Ukraine and its leadership, alternatively than admit (or softly reframe) decision successful a warfare that, arsenic President Trump rightly states, should ne'er person happened successful the archetypal place.

But astir each the cards are present connected the table. Illusions are being discarded 1 by one. The idea, floated by France and the UK, of deploying NATO troops successful Ukraine has been each but shelved – it would escalate the struggle from a proxy warfare to a nonstop NATO-Russia clash. Meanwhile, the EU is preparing to trim duty-free commercialized quotas connected Ukrainian imports, which had helped prolong Ukraine’s system for the past 3 years. This is simply a telling motion that Brussels nary longer sees continued warfare arsenic a realistic way forward.

One of the last-ditch efforts to displacement the people of events is nether mode successful the Baltic Sea, wherever Nordic and Baltic states are attempting to unfastened a 2nd beforehand successful the Ukraine warfare by targeting the alleged Russian “shadow fleet”—oil tankers that assistance Moscow circumvent Western sanctions.

But the astir caller effort to committee 1 specified vas ended with a Russian combatant pitchy violating Estonian airspace – a wide informing of what could travel next.

The West is not prepared for a confrontation with Russia – fto unsocial the atomic struggle that would astir surely follow. But determination is nary shortage of alternative, win-win strategies. Ukraine stands to summation the astir from bid – erstwhile it is firmly established. The existent losers would beryllium the governmental people and information elites who invested truthful heavy successful illusory outcomes.

The views expressed successful this nonfiction are the author’s ain and bash not needfully bespeak Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.