Here’s what Wall Street experts are saying about Walmart ahead of earnings

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Thu, May 15, 2025, 7:50 AM 3 min read

GUIDANCE: After delivering what the institution called a “strong” 4th quarter, Walmart forecast fiscal 2026 adjusted net per stock of $2.50-$2.60, connected gross up 3%-4% and adjusted operating income up 3.5%-5.5%. At the time, analysts expected EPS of $2.76, but they presently expected EPS of $2.61 connected gross of $701.89B. For the archetypal quarter, Walmart predicted adjusted EPS of 57c-58c connected gross up 3%-4% and adjusted operating income up 0.5%-2%. Analysts presently expect EPS of 58c connected gross of $164.43B.

The reaffirmation of Q1 and fiscal 2026 guidance astatine April’s ICM reflects the durability of the concern model, continued stock gains crossed income cohorts, and execution connected higher-margin initiatives, Raymond James said successful April. Citi reiterated Walmart arsenic a apical prime pursuing the company’s capitalist day. “Though the macro backdrop whitethorn beryllium changing by the hour, the WMT communicative is steady,” the expert told investors successful a probe note. Meanwhile, Walmart’s reiterated 2026 guidance reinforced RBC Capital’s presumption that the institution is among the champion positioned successful the abstraction to negociate done imaginable user softness and/or incremental costs, though the magnitude of over-delivery that was initially baked into RBC’s exemplary feels little apt successful the existent environment. Morgan Stanley said it expects “modest” upside successful Q1, with FY26 guidance perchance reflecting a wider scope of outcomes.

LIKELY TO REITERATE GUIDANCE: UBS thinks Walmart is 1 of the fewer retailers that has the imaginable of generating durable and predictable net the marketplace is looking for, which should pb to outperformance for the stock. The steadfast thinks Walmart volition reiterate its FY26 outlook aft it was maintained astatine Investment Community Meeting successful April. For Q1, UBS thinks Walmart maintained its “healthy” comp momentum, with its comp trends improving arsenic the 4th progressed, and “probably” would person exceeded its archetypal Q1 EPS outlook if it had not experienced the $200M of further disbursal related to casualty claims.

TARIFFS: Bernstein said connected May 5 that it is assuming 145% Chinese tariffs and “Liberation Day” tariffs connected different markets. Bernstein expects retailers to enactment with suppliers to little merchandise costs by 20%-25% by lowering prices, changing merchandise spec, and/or switching suppliers. It past expects retailers to walk connected the remaining to consumers, which could thrust mean prices up by debased azygous digits to precocious teens percent and negatively interaction measurement and traffic. Such tariff impacts could construe into treble digits EPS downside, the steadfast said.

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