Cobalt demand to outpace supply, market deficit projected in early 2030s

GlobalData

Wed, May 14, 2025, 2:48 AM 3 min read

Demand for cobalt is expected to outstrip proviso and pb to a shortage by the aboriginal 2030s, according to the latest study from the Cobalt Institute, a commercialized relation comprising producers, users, recyclers and traders of cobalt.

This alteration is driven by the increasing usage of cobalt successful electrical conveyance (EV) batteries and assorted concern applications.

In 2024, cobalt request surpassed 200,000 tonnes (t) for the archetypal time, experiencing a year-on-year summation of 14% and the astir robust yearly maturation since 2021.

The cobalt marketplace surplus successful 2024 stood astatine 36,000t, oregon 15% of demand, an summation from 25,000t successful 2023.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the starring planetary shaper of cobalt, precocious imposed a four-month export ban, aiming to code the surplus and bolster cobalt prices.

Since the ban, prices person surged by 60% to $16/lb. The aboriginal of the cobalt marketplace is present intimately tied to the DRC's adjacent determination post-ban, according to a Reuters report.

Furthermore, the cobalt surplus, which has kept prices low, is forecast to diminish successful the coming years owed to accrued demand.

Cobalt demand, excluding authorities stockpiling, is acceptable to turn astatine a compound yearly maturation complaint (CAGR) of 7%, reaching 400,000t by the aboriginal 2030s, chiefly fuelled by the enlargement of the EV market.

By 2030, EVs are predicted to comprise 57% of cobalt demand, up from 43% successful 2024, with different applications specified arsenic mobile phones, laptops and superalloys experiencing much mean growth.

According to the report, the anticipated cobalt shortage underscores the request for contiguous concern successful the abbreviated word to conscionable aboriginal marketplace requirements.

The study stated: “Securing entree to indispensable captious minerals is astatine the apical of the world’s agenda, and cobalt is portion of the solution to ensuring concern growth, nationalist information and a low-carbon economy. Urgent enactment is needed to physique reliable and liable cobalt worth chains to unafraid cobalt supply.”

Despite uncertainties surrounding the DRC's export policies, planetary cobalt proviso is projected to turn astatine a CAGR of 5% successful the coming years.

The DRC's dominance successful the marketplace is expected to alteration from 76% to 65% by 2030, portion Indonesia's stock is acceptable to emergence from 12% to 22%.

Furthermore, artisanal mining successful the DRC has deed an all-time low, accounting for little than 2% of the marketplace successful 2024, and is not anticipated to regain its erstwhile marketplace share.

This diminution is attributed to the prolonged play of debased prices, accrued concern mining and formalisation efforts wrong the country.