CBOD Market Outlook: Global oil prices slide amid US-China trade war

The Chamber of Bulk Oil Distributors (CBOD), successful its latest Market Outlook for the May 1–15, 2025 pricing window, highlights cardinal planetary and section marketplace developments expected to power substance prices successful Ghana.

Despite a humble 1.38% emergence successful planetary lipid prices during the archetypal 4th of 2025, caller weeks person seen a important reversal, with Brent crude dropping from a precocious of $83 per tube successful February to astir $67 successful April.

CBOD attributes this downturn to increasing planetary uncertainty, chiefly fueled by the intensifying tariff warfare betwixt the United States and China.

“The continued uncertainty surrounding US-China commercialized negotiations is weighing heavy connected planetary economical assurance and suppressing request maturation for crude oil,” the study stated.

Geopolitics and sanctions adhd to planetary pressure

The marketplace diminution besides coincides with renewed sanctions imposed by the Trump Administration. In February, the U.S. introduced caller restrictions targeting Iran’s atomic programme and extended sanctions to Russian entities progressive successful transporting Iranian lipid to China.

These measures are expected to restrict refinery enactment and trim petroleum exports from China, the world’s largest crude importer, further tightening planetary commercialized flows.

Rising proviso meets muted demand

Adding to the terms slump, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a dependable emergence successful U.S. lipid production, with output expected to mean 13.59 cardinal barrels per time (b/d) successful 2025 and 13.73 cardinal b/d successful 2026.

In a departure from earlier plans, OPEC+ has announced that it volition summation accumulation starting successful May alternatively of July.

This operation of accrued proviso and weakened request has triggered wide declines successful petroleum merchandise prices. CBOD reports that, globally, crude lipid prices dropped by 4.55%, petrol by 1.87%, diesel by 2.54%, and LPG by 5.55%.

Cedi strengthens, FX conditions improve

On the home front, CBOD reports that the FuFeX30, the benchmark complaint utilized for pricing petroleum products sold connected credit, has been acceptable astatine GHS14.5000/USD for the existent pricing window.

For currency sales, the spot FX complaint stands somewhat higher astatine GH¢14.7000/USD, based connected commercialized slope quotations.

The Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) biweekly FX auction allocated US$20 cardinal to Bulk Import, Distribution, and Export Companies (BIDECs), covering lone 22% of full bids submitted.

Nonetheless, the cedi appreciated importantly successful this window, with the auction complaint improving from GH¢15.5573 to GH¢14.2877 per USD, an 8.16% gain.

CBOD expects that palmy implementation of the government’s 2025 Budget fiscal argumentation measures volition reenforce cedi stableness and assistance cushion home pump prices against outer shocks.

Ex-Refinery Price Indicator framework

CBOD besides explained that the Ex-Refinery Price Indicator (XPI), which determines pricing for petroleum products successful Ghana, is based connected planetary lipid prices, a breakeven premium acceptable by the Chamber, and applicable speech rates.

The FuFeX30 is applied to credit-based transactions, portion currency income trust connected the spot rate.

With planetary proviso and request dynamics continuing to displacement rapidly, CBOD cautions that section substance prices whitethorn stay volatile unless geopolitical tensions and marketplace imbalances ease.

SP/MA

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