Apple says AI is cutting into Google search. Google says that's not true. Who's right?

Is Google screwed?

That's the $2 trillion question the tech satellite is trying to understand, pursuing yesterday's blockbuster news: A apical Apple enforcement said hunt queries connected Google's Safari browser were declining because radical were utilizing AI engines similar ChatGPT instead.

Investors instantly acted arsenic if Google's astonishing tally astatine the apical of the tech heap was over, and slashed the company's banal by much than 8%.

But a time later, Google's banal is climbing backmost up a bit, and there's a steadfast statement astir what Cue's connection means — arsenic good arsenic wherefore helium said it.

Spoiler: I'm not going to lick this 1 today. But let's astatine slightest look astatine the argument.

The astir evident mode to presumption Cue's comments was the mode Wall Street did: That Google hunt dominance was being eroded by AI competitors.

After all, fearfulness of being usurped by AI is what pushed Google to fast-track its ain AI efforts, adjacent erstwhile immoderate of those efforts created embarrassing results.

But aboriginal connected Wednesday, Google enactment retired a statement that fundamentally said Cue was wrong, without really saying that retired loud. Instead, the institution said it was continuing to spot expanding searches, and "that includes an summation successful full queries coming from Apple's devices and platforms."

So that looks similar 2 of the world's astir almighty and invaluable companies are disagreeing implicit basic, knowable facts.

But radical who wage attraction to this worldly are focusing connected 3 cardinal words successful Google's statement: "total," "devices," and "platforms." And the lack of different word: "Safari."

And that's starring them to construe Google's connection this way: "Maybe Apple truly is seeing less searches connected Safari, the default web browser connected iPhones. But you tin usage Google successful different ways connected iPhones — namely, via the Google app, but besides via Google's ain Chrome browser. And radical are utilizing those much — capable to antagonistic immoderate diminution elsewhere."

Assuming that this translation is accurate, that should reassure Google and its boosters a bit, though not completely: Cue said the searches connected Safari were down for the archetypal clip ever, and that's not the benignant of awesome you tin conscionable question away.

And adjacent if Google Safari searchers are truly moving to things similar the Google App instead, that besides underlines the information that radical who utilized to conscionable benignant thing into their iPhone browser cognize present they tin get results different ways. And there's nary crushed they couldn't besides beryllium searching Google competitors similar ChatGPT.

A Google rep declined to comment; Apple hasn't responded to my petition for comment.

Google investors, by the way, don't look 100% convinced by Google's statement: The banal is up 3% connected Thursday, which means Google is inactive worthy 5% little than it was Wednesday morning, erstwhile Cue started testifying successful the US vs. Google antitrust trial.

Which brings america to the 2nd question Google and Apple watchers are speculating about: Why did Cue accidental what helium said successful court, aft all?

I'm an Occam's Razor guy, truthful my archetypal instrumentality was that Cue answered the questions helium was asked successful court.

But there's besides a 4D chess argument, enactment distant by folks similar MoffettNathanson expert Michael Nathanson. It goes similar this: Cue has an inducement to represent Google arsenic a wounded animal.

That's due to the fact that Google pays Apple astatine slightest $20 cardinal a year to marque Google the default hunt motor connected Safari (that's the crushed Cue has penetration into Google's hunt activity), and a national justice has already declared that Google has an amerciable monopoly successful search.

And 1 of the remedies the justice could propulsion for would beryllium to forestall Google from paying Apple for that invaluable existent property — which would mean Apple could suffer each of that high-margin revenue.

So, the mentation goes, convincing the justice that Apple nary longer has a stranglehold connected search, due to the fact that of AI competition, mightiness let those payments to support flowing aft all.

That mentation besides helps explicate Google's muted effect connected Wednesday night, wherever the institution tried to locomotion the enactment betwixt tooting its ain horn (which bucks up investors but could harm its ineligible argument) and acknowledging that they person existent contention (which could assistance Google successful tribunal but wounded it successful the market).

Which brings america backmost to wherever we started: Is Google truly starting to suffer retired to the ChatGPTs of the world, and entering a imperishable decline, conscionable similar wage TV networks a decennary ago? Or is it holding its ain contempt the competition? Depending connected wherever you're asking the question, Google mightiness springiness you a antithetic answer.